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Publication - Research Publication

Economic impacts for Scottish and UK seafood industries post-Brexit: report

Published: 5 Jun 2018
Part of:
Brexit, Marine and fisheries
ISBN:
9781788519755

The report presents findings from research examining the possible impacts of EU exit on Scottish and UK seafood industries.

101 page PDF

2.8MB

101 page PDF

2.8MB

Contents
Economic impacts for Scottish and UK seafood industries post-Brexit: report
Appendix C: Scenarios

101 page PDF

2.8MB

Appendix C: Scenarios

Detail on the scenarios is provided in Table C.1 (Scenario 1), Table C.2 (Scenario 2), Table C.3 (Scenario 3) and Table C.4 (Scenario 4) below.

Table C.1. Scenario 1 detail

Scenario 1

Trade Flow

Tariffs and NTMs

UK and EU Production
(Catches, Based on Quota Distribution)

EU

Non- EU

UK

EU

Global Free Trade Agreement and increased UK production

Imports (to UK) from

Zero tariffs (no change)

Zero tariffs (eliminate current trade barriers)

UK production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment

EU production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment

Minimum level of non-tariff measures (equal to baseline):

  • Catch certificates
  • Trade defence

Modelled at 5%

Minimum level of non-tariff measures (below baseline):

  • Catch certificates (no change)
  • Trade defence (no change)

Modelled at 10%

Exports (from UK) to

Zero tariffs (no change)

Zero tariffs (eliminate current trade barriers)

Minimum level of non-tariff measures (equal to baseline):

  • Catch certificates
  • Trade defence

Modelled at 5%

Minimum level of non-tariff measures (below baseline):

  • Trade defence

Modelled at 10%

Table C.2. Scenario 2 detail

Scenario 2

Trade Flow

Tariffs and NTMs

UK and EU Production
(Catches, Based on Quota Distribution)

EU

Non- EU

UK

EU

EEA-type agreement with EU (based on Norway’s), current trade arrangements with non- EU (grandfathering to UK, EU trade arrangements with RoW) and increased UK production

Imports (to UK) from

Tariff based on Norway EEA Agreement

Maintain baseline tariffs

UK production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment

EU production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment

Non-tariff measures based on Norway EEA Agreement (moderate NTMs):

  • Mutual recognition of standards, testing and certification (light-touch customs and veterinary checks)
  • RoO
  • Catch certificates
  • Trade defence

Modelled at 10%

Maintain baseline level of non-tariff measures (equal to baseline):

  • Testing and certification requirements (no change)
  • RoO (no change)
  • Catch certificates (no change)
  • Trade defence (no change)

Modelled at 15%

Exports (from UK) to

Tariff based on Norway EEA Agreement

Maintain baseline tariffs

Non-tariff measures based on Norway EEA Agreement (moderate NTMs)

  • Mutual recognition of standards, testing and certification (light-touch customs and veterinary checks)
  • RoO
  • Catch certificates
  • Trade defence

Modelled at 10%

Maintain baseline level of non-tariff measures (equal to baseline):

  • Testing and certification requirements (no change)
  • RoO (no change)
  • Trade defence (no change)

Modelled at 15%

Table C.3. Scenario 3 detail

Scenario 3 –

Slightly Pessimistic

Trade Flow

Tariffs and NTMs

UK and EU Production
(Catches, Based on Quota Distribution)

EU

Non- EU

UK

EU

MFN tariffs on both EU and non- EU trade (default to WTO trade rules) and increased UK production

Imports (to UK) from

MFN tariffs

Existing tariffs

UK production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment

EU production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment

Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs):

  • Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks
  • Catch certificates
  • Trade defence

Modelled at 15%

Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs, equal to base):

  • Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks
  • Catch certificates (no change)
  • Trade defence (no change)

Modelled at 15%

Exports (from UK) to

MFN tariffs

Existing tariffs

Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs):

  • Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks
  • Catch certificates
  • Trade defence

Modelled at 15%

Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs, equal to base):

  • Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks
  • Trade defence (no change)

Modelled at 15%

Table C.4. Scenario 4 detail

Scenario 4 –

Highly Pessimistic

Trade Flow

Tariffs and NTMs

UK and EU Production
(Catches, Based on Quota Distribution)

EU

Non- EU

UK

EU

MFN Tariffs on both EU and non- EU trade (default to WTO trade rules) and no increase in UK production

Imports (to UK) from

MFN tariffs

MFN tariffs

No adjustment in UK production to reflect zonal attachment (current quota allocations maintained)

No change for model, i.e. production based on current (2011-15) annual average landings

No adjustment in EU production to reflect zonal attachment (current quota allocations maintained)

No change for model, i.e. production based on current (2011-15) annual average landings

Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs):

  • Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks
  • Catch certificates
  • Trade defence

Modelled at 15%

Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs, equal to base):

  • Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks
  • Catch certificates
  • Trade defence (no change)

Modelled at 15%

Exports (from UK) to

MFN tariffs

MFN tariffs

Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs):

  • Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks
  • Catch certificates
  • Trade defence

Modelled at 15%

Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs, equal to base):

  • Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks
  • Trade defence (no change)

Modelled at 15%


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