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Minimum unit pricing of alcohol : final business and regulatory impact assessment

Published: 1 Mar 2018

Underlines the rationale for minimum unit pricing from health and economic perspectives, setting out anticipated costs and benefits for all parties affected by a minimum price of 50 pence per unit.

151 page PDF

2.2MB

151 page PDF

2.2MB

Contents
Minimum unit pricing of alcohol : final business and regulatory impact assessment
Footnotes

151 page PDF

2.2MB

Footnotes

1 This refers to the substantive section in the main body of the Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment ( BRIA)

2 Giles L, Robinson M. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy: Monitoring Report 2017. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland; 2017.

3 Nostrom, T. (ed) (2002) Alcohol in Postwar Europe: consumption, drinking patterns, consequences and policy responses in 15 European countries, Sweden: National Institute of Public Health

4 Babor, T. et al. (2003) Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity, Oxford. Oxford University Press

5 Anderson, P. and Baumberg, B. (2006) Alcohol in Europe, London: Institute of Alcohol Studies

6 Revised definition from ONS and NRS 2017: deaths which are known to be a direct consequence of alcohol misuse https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/alcohol-deaths/alcohol-specific-deaths-new-definition

7 ONS (2017) Alcohol-specific deaths in the UK: registered in 2016

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/alcoholrelateddeathsintheunitedkingdom/registeredin2016

8 The others are blood borne viruses (e.g. hepatitis B or C) and obesity

9 Scottish Government 2008

10 ISD Alcohol-related Hospital Statistics Scotland 2016/17; http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Drugs-and-Alcohol-Misuse/Publications/2017-11-21/2017-11-21-ARHS-Report.pdf?

11 Scottish Government (December 2017) Long-term Monitoring of Health Inequalities. http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0052/00529436.pdf

12 Tod E, Grant I, Wyper G, et al. (2018) Hospital Admissions, death and overall burden of disease attributable to alcohol consumption in Scotland: ScotPHO NHS Health Scotland. http://www.scotpho.org.uk/publications/reports-and-papers/hospital-admissions-deaths-and-overall-burden-of-disease-attributable-to-alcohol-consumption-in-scotland

13 Carnie, J. and Broderick, R. (2016) Prisoner Survey 2015, Scottish Prison Service

14 Carnie, J. and Broderick, R. (2016) Young people in custody 2015 Scottish Prison Service

15 Institute of Alcohol Studies ( IAS) (2015) Alcohol’s impact on emergency services. IAS

16 Sharp C, Marcinkiewicz A and Rutherford L (2014) Attitudes towards alcohol in Scotland: results from the 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey Health Scotland

http://www.healthscotland.com/documents/23453.aspx

17 York Health Economics Consortium (2010) The Societal Cost of Alcohol Misuse in Scotland for 2007, Edinburgh: Scottish Government http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/12/29122804/0

18 Changing Scotland’s Relationship with Alcohol: A Framework for Action, published in 2009 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2009/03/04144703/0

19 World Health Organization (2010) Global strategy to reduce harmful use of alcohol, Geneva: World Health Organization http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/alcstratenglishfinal.pdf

20 Off-sales and off-trade refers to alcohol that is bought from retailers such as supermarkets, small shops and is for consumption off these premises.

21 Those who drink above UK CMO lower risk guidelines

22 Stockwell, T., Auld, M. C., Zhao, J. and Martin, G. (2012) Does minimum pricing reduce alcohol consumption? The experience of a Canadian province, Addiction, Volume 107, Issue 5, pp 912-920

23 Stockwell, T., Zhao, J. Martin G, Macdonald S, Vallance K et al. (2013) Minimum alcohol prices and outlet densities in British Columbia, Canada, estimated impacts on alcohol attributable hospital admissions. Am J Public Health 103 p 2014-20

24 Stockwell, T., Zhao, J. Martin G, Macdonald S, Vallance K et al. (2013) The relationship between minimum alcohol prices, outlet densities, and on alcohol attributable deaths in British Columbia 2002-09. Addiction 108 p 1059-69

25 Stockwell, T., Zhao (2017). The impacts of minimum alcohol pricing on alcohol attributable morbidity in regions of British Columbia, Canada with low, medium nad high family income. Addiction. Research report

26 Stockwell, T., Zhao J, Sherk A, Callaghan R, Macdonald S, Gatley J, (2017).Assessing the impacts of Saskatchewan’s minimum alcohol pricing regulations on alcohol related crime . Drug and Alcohol review. 36.p 492 -501

27 Consultation undertaken in order to comply with EU law (article 9 of ( EC) Regulation 178/2002)

28 Full effect is estimated to be at 20 years: gains in acute conditions are expected to accrue immediately, while those from chronic conditions take longer to develop due to the ‘time lags’ between reductions in consumption and reductions in corresponding risks of harm.

29 Table 4.12 (or Figure 4.13) in the Sheffield 2016 report, page 60.

30 Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy

31 http://www.healthscotland.scot/health-topics/alcohol/evaluation-of-minimum-unit-pricing

32 http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2012/4/contents

33 http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Health/Services/Alcohol/minimum-pricing/Impact-Assessment

34 Sections 14 and sections 36-40 of the Licensing (Scotland) Act 2005.

35 This is strength by volume ( ABV).

36 This is based upon a “unit” of alcohol in the UK being 10 millilitres (8g) of pure alcohol.

37 http://ec.europa.eu/growth/tools-databases/tris/en/index.cfm/search/?trisaction=search.detail&year=2012&num=394&mLang=EN

38 http://www.eurocare.org/resources/policy_issues/minimum_unit_price_mup

39 http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Health/Services/Alcohol/minimum-pricing

40 http://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/search-judgments/judgment?id=be2c86a6-8980-69d2-b500-ff0000d74aa7

41 http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=157554&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=531141

42 http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=166846&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=203295

43 http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=173249&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=586956

44 http://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/search-judgments/judgment?id=9a1821a7-8980-69d2-b500-ff0000d74aa7

45 https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2017-0025.html

46 Scottish Government (2008) Changing Scotland’s relationship with alcohol: a discussion paper on our strategic approach, Edinburgh: Scottish Government

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/06/16084348/0

47 Available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/11/26115423/Contents

48 Scottish Government (2009) Changing Scotland’s Relationship with Alcohol: A Framework for Action, Edinburgh: Scottish Government http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/03/04144703/0

49 World Health Organization (2010) Global strategy to reduce harmful use of alcohol, Geneva: World Health Organization http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/alcstratenglishfinal.pdf

50 http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2010/18/contents

51 Robinson M, Geue C, Lewsey J, et al. Evaluating the impact of the alcohol act on off-trade alcohol sales: a natural experiment in Scotland. Addiction 2014;109:2035-2043.

52 NHS Health Scotland (2011) You, Your Child and Alcohol, Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland http://www.drinksmarter.org/media/14397/parents-guide.pdf

53 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/4388

54 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2013/04/2305/0

55 Scottish Government (2011) Scottish Ministerial Advisory Committee on Alcohol Problems ( SMACAP) Essential Services Working Group: Quality Alcohol Treatment and Support ( QATS), Edinburgh: Scottish Government

56 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2014/08/1726

57 HEAT targets were NHS Scotland targets for performance in the areas of Health Improvement, Efficiency, Access and Treatment. They have been replaced by LDP standards. These help NHS Boards set priorities for their work.

58 http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Health/Quality-Improvement-Performance/NHS-Performance-Targets

59 http://www.healthscotland.scot/health-topics/alcohol/monitoring-and-evaluating-scotlands-alcohol-strategy

60 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-final-report

61 http://www.alliance4usefulevidence.org/publication/four-nations/

62 UK Chief Medical Officers revised the lower risk drinking guidelines in August 2016 so that, in order to keep health risks from alcohol to a low level, it is safest not to drink more than 14 units a week on a regular basis for both men and women. Previously the advice was no more than 14 units a week for women and 21 units a week for men.

63 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/alcohol-consumption-advice-on-low-risk-drinking

64 1 unit in the UK = 10 millilitres (8g) of pure alcohol

65 Babor, T. et al. (2003) Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity, Oxford: Oxford University Press

66 World Health Organization (2010) Global Strategy to Reduce the Harmful Use of Alcohol, Geneva: World Health Organization http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/alcstratenglishfinal.pdf (para 32)

67 National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (2010) Alcohol-use disorders: preventing harmful drinking, London: National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence http://guidance.nice.org.uk/PH24/Guidance/pdf/English

68 The University of Sheffield modelling carried out was for all discounted alcohol as the collection of data on sales was not able to distinguish between straight discounting and quantity discounting. Powers devolved to the Scottish Parliament meant that only a ban on quantity discounts could be implemented.

69 http://www.healthscotland.com/uploads/documents/21101-Alcohol%20Act%20Report%20May%202013.pdf

70 Nakamura R., Suhrcke M., Pechey R., Morciano M., Roland M., Marteau T. M. (2014) Impact on alcohol purchasing of a ban on multi-buy promotions: a quasi-experimental evaluation comparing Scotland with England and Wales. Addiction 2014; 109: 558–567

71 Robinson M et al (2017) The short-term impact of the alcohol act on alcohol-related deaths and hospital admissions in Scotland: a natural experiment Addiction online 2 Oct 2017.

72 http://www.gov.scot/About/Performance/purposestratobjs

73 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/03/5984

74 Jones, L, Bellis M (2013) Updating England-Specific Alcohol-Attributable Fractions. Centre for Public health’ Liverpool John Moore’s University.

75 Tod E, Grant I, Wyper G, et al. (2018) Hospital Admissions, death and overall burden of disease attributable to alcohol consumption in Scotland: ScotPHO NHS Health Scotland

76 Ibid

77 York Health Economics Consortium (2010) The Societal Cost of Alcohol Misuse in Scotland for 2007, Edinburgh: Scottish Government http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/12/29122804/0

78 Rehm, J. et al. (2009) Global burden of disease and injury and economic cost attributable to alcohol use and alcohol-use disorders, Lancet; 373: 2223–33.

79 World Health Organization (2000) International Guide for Monitoring Alcohol Consumption and Related Harm, Geneva: World Health Organization

80 Catto, S. and Gibbs, D. (2009) How much are people in Scotland really drinking?, Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland http://www.scotpho.org.uk/media/1230/scotpho080526_alcoholsurveys_rep.pdf

81 World Health Organization (2004) Global Status Report on Alcohol 2004, Geneva: World Health Organisation

82 Giles L, Robinson M. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy: Monitoring Report 2017. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland; 2017.

83 Giles L, Robinson M. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy: Monitoring Report 2017. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland; 2017.

84 Thorpe, R., Robinson, M., McCartney, G., and Beeston, C. (2011) Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy: A review of the validity and reliability of alcohol retail sales data for the purpose of Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy, Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland

85 World Health Organization ( WHO) Regional Office for Europe, Alcohol control database http://data.euro.who.int/alcohol/?TabID=2420, accessed on 14 August 2017. Note the WHO database use population 15+ but this makes a very marginal difference to the per capita figure.

86 World Health Organization (2000) International Guide for Monitoring Alcohol Consumption and Related Harm, Geneva: World Health Organization

87 Catto, S. and Gibbs, D. (2009) How much are people in Scotland really drinking?, Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland http://www.scotpho.org.uk/media/1230/scotpho080526_alcoholsurveys_rep.pdf

88 Scottish Government (2017) The Scottish Health Survey 2016: Volume 1: Main Report

89 The Scottish Health Survey 2017 estimates mean (aged 16 and over) consumption of 12.8 units per week; sales data suggest 24.1 units. These are both based on adult drinker population, not total population.

90 MESAS Monitoring Report 2017. Health Scotland

91 Nostrom, T. (ed) (2002) Alcohol in Postwar Europe: consumption, drinking patterns, consequences and policy responses in 15 European countries, Sweden: National Institute of Public Health

92 Babor, T. et al. (2003) Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity, Oxford. Oxford University Press

93 Anderson, P. and Baumberg, B. (2006) Alcohol in Europe, London: Institute of Alcohol Studies

94 Scottish Trauma Audit Group ( STAG) (2016) Audit of trauma management in Scotland. Annual report NSS

95 http://www.nhs.uk/Livewell/alcohol/Pages/Effectsofalcohol.aspx

96 https://www.cdc.gov/alcohol/fact-sheets/alcohol-use.htm

97 http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention/alcohol-use/data-and-statistics

98 WHO Europe Alcohol in the European Union: Consumption , harm and policy approaches

http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/160680/e96457.pdf?ua=1

99 Alcohol Guidelines Review – Report from the Guidelines development group to the UK Chief Medical Officers. 2016. Department of Health UK

100 Evidence emerging since the previous guidelines were published in 1995

101 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/consumption-of-alcoholic-beverages-and-risk-of-cancer

102 UK Chief Medical Officers’ Low Risk Drinking Guidelines 2016

103 http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Drugs-and-Alcohol-Misuse/Publications/2017-11-21/2017-11-21-ARHS-Report.pdf?

104 Ibid

105 http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Drugs-and-Alcohol-Misuse/Publications/2017-11-21/2017-11-21-ARHS-Report.pdf?

106 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/alcoholrelateddeathsintheunitedkingdom/registeredin2016

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/alcohol-deaths/alcohol-specific-deaths-new-definition

107 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/alcohol-related-deaths/tables

108 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/alcohol-deaths

109 ONS (2017) Alcohol-specific deaths in the UK: registered in 2016

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/alcoholrelateddeathsintheunitedkingdom/registeredin2016

110 The others are blood borne viruses (e.g. hepatitis B or C) and obesity

111 http://www.scotpho.org.uk/health-wellbeing-and-disease/chronic-liver-disease/data/international-comparisons data sourced from HfA data base

112 http://www.scotpho.org.uk/health-wellbeing-and-disease/chronic-liver-disease/data/international-comparisons data sourced from HfA data base

113 Scottish Government 2008

114 http://www.scotpho.org.uk/health-wellbeing-and-disease/chronic-liver-disease/key-points

115 ISD Alcohol-related Hospital Statistics Scotland 2016/17; http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Drugs-and-Alcohol-Misuse/Publications/2017-11-21/2017-11-21-ARHS-Report.pdf?

116 Scottish Government (Dec 2017) Long-term Monitoring of Health Inequalities. http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0052/00529436.pdf

117 Grant, I., Springbett A., and Graham L. (2009) Alcohol attributable mortality and morbidity: alcohol population attributable fractions for Scotland. Edinburgh: NHS National Services Scotland

118 Tod E, Grant I, Wyper G, et al. (2018) Hospital Admissions, death and overall burden of disease attributable to alcohol consumption in Scotland: ScotPHO NHS Health Scotland. http://www.scotpho.org.uk/publications/reports-and-papers/hospital-admissions-deaths-and-overall-burden-of-disease-attributable-to-alcohol-consumption-in-scotland/ a

119 Martin SE (2001) The links between alcohol, crime and the criminal Justice system: explanations, evidence and interventions . America Journal of Addiction. 10 136 - 58

120 Booth, A. et al. (2008) Independent Review of the Effects of Alcohol Pricing and Promotion Part A: Systematic Reviews, Sheffield: University of Sheffield

121 Graham L, Parkes T, McAuley A, Doi L, Alcohol problems in the criminal justice system: an opportunity for intervention. 2012 WHO Europe

122 Carnie, J. and Broderick, R. (2016) Prisoner Survey 2015, Scottish Prison Service

123 Carnie, J. and Broderick, R. (2016) Young people in custody 2015 Scottish Prison Service

124 Carnie, J. and Broderick, R. (2016) Prisoner Survey 2015, Scottish Prison Service

125 Institute of Alcohol Studies ( IAS) (2015) Alcohol’s impact on emergency services. IAS

126 Scottish Government (2016) Scottish School Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey ( SALSUS) 2015: Alcohol Report, Edinburgh: NHS National Services Scotland

127 Jones L, Sumnall H (2016) Understanding the relationship between poverty and alcohol abuse. Centre for Public Health: John Moore’s University Liverpool.

128 The National Association for Children of Alcoholics The effects of parental alcohol problems http://www.nacoa.org.uk/concerned-others-and-professionals/research.html

129 Scottish Health Action on Alcohol Problems ( SHAAP) / Childline (2009) Untold Damage: Children's accounts of living with harmful parental drinking

130 http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0039/00395549.pdf 2012 BRIA, page 25.

131 Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit (2003) Alcohol project: interim analytical report. London: Cabinet Office.

132 Casswell, S., You R., and Huckle, T. (2011) Alcohol’s harm to others: reduced well being and health status for those with heavy drinkers in their lives, Addiction 106. 1087-1094

133 Sharp C, Marcinkiewicz A and Rutherford L (2014) Attitudes towards alcohol in Scotland: results from the 2013 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey Health Scotland http://www.healthscotland.com/documents/23453.aspx

134 Alcohol in the European Union. Consumption, harm and policy approaches. Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2012.

135 Wagenaar, A.C., Salois, M.J., and Komro K.A (2009) Effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on consumption: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies, Addiction, 104, 2009

136 OECD (2015). Sassi F (ed). Tackling Harmful Alcohol Use: Economics and Public Health Policy OECD

137 WHO Alcohol Fact sheet (2015) http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs349/en/

138 European action plan to reduce the harmful use of alcohol 2012–2020. Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2012.

139 Boniface S, Scannell JW, Marlow S (2017) . Evidence for the effectiveness of minimum unit pricing of alcohol: a systematic review and assessment using the Bradford Hill criteria for causality. BMJ Open 2017 I 7:e013497

140 Heeb, J.L. et al. (2003) Changes in alcohol consumption following a reduction in the price of spirits: a natural experiment in Switzerland. Addiction, Volume 98 (10) Pgs: 1433-1446

141 Herttua, K. et al. (2008) Changes in alcohol-related mortality and its socio-economic differences after a large reduction in alcohol prices: a natural experiment based on register data, American Journal of Epidemiology

142 Vaarmo K, Puljula J, Tetru S, et al (2012) Mortality of harmful drinkers increase after reduction of alcohol prices in northern Finland: a 10 year follow up of head trauma subjects. Neuroepidemiology 2012.39 p 156 - 162

143 Room R , Bloomfield K et al (2013) What happened to alcohol consumption and problems in the Nordic countries when alcohol taxes were decrease nad the borders opened? International Journal of Alcohol and Drug Research.2013: 2(1) 77 – 87

144 National Institute for Health and Welfare, Official Statistics of Finland (2012) Statistical Yearbook of Alcohol and Drug Statistics 2011

145 Treisman D (2010) Death and Prices : Economics of Transition vol 18(2) 281-331

146 WHO (2014) European status report on alcohol and health 2014. Pricing policies. http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/244902/Pricing-policies.pdf?ua=1

147 Stockwell, T., Auld, M. C., Zhao, J. and Martin, G. (2012) Does minimum pricing reduce alcohol consumption? The experience of a Canadian province, Addiction, Volume 107, Issue 5, pp 912-920

148 Stockwell, T., Zhao, J. Martin G, Macdonald S, Vallance K et al. (2013) Minimum alcohol prices and outlet densities in British Columbia, Canada, estimated impacts on alcohol attributable hospital admissions. Am J Public Health 103 p 2014-20

149 Stockwell, T., Zhao, J. Martin G, Macdonald S, Vallance K et al. (2013) The relationship between minimum alcohol prices, outlet densities, and on alcohol attributable deaths in British Columbia 2002-09. Addiction 108 p 1059-69

150 Stockwell, T., Zhao (2017). The impacts of minimum alcohol pricing on alcohol attributable morbidity in regions of British Columbia, Canada with low, medium and high family income. Addiction. Research report

151 Stockwell, T., Zhao J, Sherk A, Callaghan R, Macdonald S, Gatley J, (2017).Assessing the impacts of Saskatchewan’s minimum alcohol pricing regulations on alcohol related crime. Drug and Alcohol review. 36.p 492 -501

152 NHS Health Scotland: MESAS monitoring report 2017

153 Ibid

154 Ibid

155 NHS Health Scotland: MESAS monitoring report 2017

156 Nielsen is a global measurement and data analytics company that provides data on consumers and markets worldwide.

157 Beeston, C., Robinson, M., Craig, N., and Graham. L. (2011) Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy. Setting the Scene: Theory of change and baseline picture - Glossary and Appendices, Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland

158 For a discussion on the validity of this data see: Thorpe R, Robinson M, McCartney G, Beeston C. (2011) Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy: A review of the validity and reliability of alcohol retail sales data for the purpose of Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland.

159 Nielsen do not collect data from the discount retailers and an adjustment is made to the data to account for this: see NHS Health Scotland (2017) Appendix 1 in MESAS Monitoring Report 2017.

160 A 2017 briefing note from the Institute of Fiscal Studies suggested that, using a different data source, almost 70% of off-trade alcohol units purchased (i.e. those bought in supermarkets and off-licences) in Britain between October 2015 and September 2016 were priced below 50p per unit https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/10252

161 NHS Health Scotland MESAS Monitoring report 2017; Nielsen price band data set

162 NHS Health Scotland MESAS Monitoring report 2017; Nielsen price band data set

163 MESAS monitoring report 2017

164 Ibid

165 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017 Nielsen Price Band Dataset: alcohol price and affordability

166 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2008/06/16084348/0

167 Minimum Unit Pricing of Alcohol, Consultation Report: Analysis of Responses http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2018/02/8164

168 The modelling is discussed in more detail in paragraphs 8.5-8.20

169 E.g. Gruenwald et al. (2006) developed a model which shows that price increases targeted at the lowest cost brand would produce a greater reduction in sales than across the board price increases; Gruenwald, P.J., Ponicki, W.R., Holder, H.D., and Romelsjö, A. (2006) Alcohol Prices, Beverage Quality, and the Demand for Alcohol: Quality Substitutions and Price Elasticities, Alcoholism Clinical and Experimental Research 30 1: 96-105

170 https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/scharr/sections/ph/research/alpol/publications#modellingreports

171 Booth, A. et al. (2008) Independent Review of the Effects of Alcohol Pricing and Promotion Part A: Systematic Reviews, Sheffield: University of Sheffield

172 Table 4.4 in the 2016 University of Sheffield report for the Scottish Government

173 MESAS monitoring report 2017

174 Hunt, P., Rabinovich, L., and Baumberg, B. (2011) Preliminary assessment of economic impacts of alcohol pricing options in the UK, RAND Europe

175 Extrapolated from table 4.3, 2016 University of Sheffield report for Scottish Government

176 Meier PS, Holmes J, Angus C, Ally AK, Meng Y and Brennan A. (2016) ' Estimated effects of different alcohol taxation and price policies on health inequalities: A mathematical modelling study', PLOS Medicine, 13 (2), e1001963. (Open Access)

177 https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/consultations-get-involved/customs-consultations/public-consultation-structures-excise-duties-applied-alcohol-and-alcoholic-beverages_en

178 https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/sites/taxation/files/com_2016_676_en.pdf

179 Ally, A., Meng, Y., Chakraborty, R., Dobson, PW., Seaton, JS., Holmes, J., Angus, C., Guo, Y., Hill-McManus, D., Brennan, A. and Meier, PS. (2014) ' Alcohol tax pass-through across the product and price range: do retailers treat cheap alcohol differently?', Addiction, 109 (12), pp.1994-2002.

180 Competition Commission (2008) Grocery inquiry: below cost selling, See appendix 5.6 http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140402194746/http://www.competition-commission.org.uk/our-work/directory-of-all-inquiries/groceries-market-investigation-and-remittal/final-report-and-appendices-glossary-inquiry

181 In England and Wales, from May 2014, selling alcohol products below the cost of duty + VAT was banned.

182 Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) ' Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3 ', ScHARR: University of Sheffield.

183 Duty rises in the UK over the last 20 years have rarely exceeded 5%

184 Crime and employment impacts are excluded from the most recent (2016) report but can be found in the 2012 report.

185 Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) ' Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3 ', ScHARR: University of Sheffield

186 For chronic health conditions, there will be a ‘time lag’ between a reduction in consumption and the associated reduction in harm. This time lag is likely to vary across conditions. Following a review of the international literature in v3 of the model the University of Sheffield adopted a mean lag time of 20 years for all health conditions. The full effect of minimum pricing in reducing chronic health harms is therefore assumed to accrue after 20 years.

187 In particular the ability to account for variation of impact on different socio demographic groups and a range of taxation policies.

188 Table 4.17 in the 2016 Sheffield report for Scottish Government

189 Table 4.22 in the 2016 University of Sheffield report for Scottish Government

190 When the modelling was undertaken the terms “hazardous and harmful” were used to distinguish levels of drinking above guidelines.

191 Petrie, D. et al. (2011) Scoping study of the economic impact on the alcohol industry of pricing and non-price policies to regulate the affordability and availability of alcohol in Scotland. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland

192 Scottish liquor licensing statistics on premises and personal licences in force, applications and reviews/proceeding 2015-16.

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/PubLiquor/LiquLic201516

193 Own/ private label is a brand owned by a retailer or supplier (e.g. Tesco) who gets its goods made by a contract producer under its own label.

194 https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/scharr/sections/ph/research/alpol/publications#scottish

195 Independent Review Of The Effects Of Alcohol Pricing And Promotion: Part B. Modelling the Potential Impact of Pricing and Promotion Policies for Alcohol in England: Results from the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model Version 2008,

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publichealth/Healthimprovement/Alcoholmisuse/DH_4001740

196 Independent Review of the Effects of Alcohol Pricing and Promotion, part A, http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publichealth/Healthimprovement/Alcoholmisuse/DH_4001740.

197 Booth, A. et al. (2008) Independent Review of the Effects of Alcohol Pricing and promotion Part A: Systematic Reviews, Sheffield: University of Sheffield http://www.sheffield.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1.95617!/file/PartA.pdf

198 UK Chief Medical Officers revised the lower risk drinking guidelines in August 2016 so that, in order to keep health risks from alcohol to a low level, it is safest not to drink more than 14 units a week on a regular basis for both men and women. Previously the advice was no more than 14 units a week for women and 21 units a week for men.

199 Epidemiology deals with the incidence, distribution, and control of diseases in specific populations.

200 Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) ' Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3 ', ScHARR: University of Sheffield.

201 As measured by alcohol related deaths and alcohol related hospitalisations

202 For a discussion of the methodology see: Brennan, A., Meier, P., Purshouse, R., Rafia, R., Meng, Y., Hill-McManus, D., Angus, C. and Holmes, J. (2015) ' The Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model: A Mathematical Description ', Health Economics, 24 (10), 1368-88 (Open access)

203 Peer reviewed publication remains the gold standard for academic credence

204 The Lancet, 375 (9723),editorial

205 Poverty is defined as an individual having an equivalised household income below 60% of the population median.

206 https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/scharr

207 Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P, Brennan A. (2016) ' Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland: An adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 3 ', ScHARR: University of Sheffield.

208 Meng, Y. et al. (2012) Model-based appraisal of alcohol minimum pricing and off-licensed trade discount bans in Scotland using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (v.2): Second update based on newly available data, Sheffield: University of Sheffield

209 Booth, A. et al. (2008) Independent Review of the Effects of Alcohol Pricing and Promotion Part A: Systematic Reviews, Sheffield: University of Sheffield

210 Full effect refers to the impact of the policy on health in the 20th year following policy implementation.

211 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) table 4.11

212 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) table 4.12

213 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) table 4.13

214 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) table 4.14

215 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) Figure 4.20

216 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) table 4.16

217 Beeston, C., Robinson, M., Craig, N., and Graham, L. (2011) Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy. Setting the Scene: Theory of change and baseline picture, Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland

218 Beeston C, McAdams R, Craig N, Gordon R, Graham L, MacPherson M, McAuley A, McCartney G, Robinson M, Shipton D, Van Heelsum A. (2016) Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy. Final Report. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland;

219 Table 4.3 in 2016 Sheffield report for the Scottish Government

220 Hunt, P., Rabinovich, L., and Baumberg, B. (2011) Preliminary assessment of economic impacts of alcohol pricing options in the UK, RAND Europe

221 The full effect of minimum pricing in reducing chronic health harms in the 2012 Sheffield Model is assumed to accrue after 10 years, whereas in the 2016 Sheffield Model, this is 20 years.

222 Calculated using the value of 1 QALY as £50,000: this was the valuation used at the time by the UK Department of Health.

223 https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1.150021!/file/scotlandupdatejan2012.pdf , Tables 3.8, 3.10

224 Following on from Dubourg et al (2005), direct physical and emotional impacts on victims of crime are valued at £81,000 per QALY.

225 https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1.150021!/file/scotlandupdatejan2012.pdf , Tables 3.8, 3.10

226 https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1.150021!/file/scotlandupdatejan2012.pdf , Tables 3.8, 3.10

227 https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1.565373!/file/Scotland_report_2016.pdf , section 3.5

228 Consistent with the work done to inform the CMOs review of drinking guidelines.

Holmes J, Angus C et al (2016) Mortality and morbidity risks from alcohol consumption in the UK: Analyses using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (v.2.7) to inform the UK Chief Medical Officers’ review of the UK lower risk drinking guidelines Final report. ScHARR, University of Sheffield

229 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) table 4.24

230 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) table 4.10

231 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

232 Ibid

233 As measured by “natural volumes” of product: Communication with NHS Health Scotland 2017

234 IBIS World Off-Licence Alcoholic Beverage Retailers Market Research Report | SIC G47.250 | July 2011 https://www.ibisworld.co.uk/industry-trends/market-research-reports/wholesale-retail-trade/except-of-motor-vehicles-motorcycles/alcoholic-beverage-wholesaling.html

235 IBIS world (2017) Off-Licences in the UK: Market Research Report.. https://www.ibisworld.co.uk/industry-trends/market-research-reports/wholesale-retail-trade/except-of-motor-vehicles-motorcycles/off-licences.html

236 Hunt, P., Rabinovich, L., and Baumberg, B. (2011) Preliminary assessment of economic impacts of alcohol pricing options in the UK, RAND Europe

237 Op. cit., correspondence with Scottish Government, September 2011

238 Competition Commission (2008) Grocery inquiry: below cost selling (appendix 5.6), http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140402194746/http://www.competition-commission.org.uk/our-work/directory-of-all-inquiries/groceries-market-investigation-and-remittal/final-report-and-appendices-glossary-inquiry

239 Record, C. and Day, C. (2009) Britain's alcohol market: how minimum alcohol prices could stop moderate drinkers subsidising those drinking at hazardous and harmful levels, Clinical Medicine vol 9(5), 2009

240 Op. cit., through correspondence with Scottish Government, September 2011

241 Changes in demand for one good in response to a change in the price of another: discussed in para 8.63 and Annex A paragraph 73

242 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

243 Scottish Licensed Trade Association input to Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment through correspondence with Scottish Government, September 2011

244 Section 4.3.4 from 2016 University of Sheffield report for the Scottish Government

245 Scottish Government (2017) Scottish Health Survey 2016 - Volume 1: Main report, Edinburgh: Scottish Government http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/10/2970/0

246 Above 14 units/week

247 Scottish Government statisticians analysis of Scottish Health Survey data.

248 Response to SG consultation January 2018

249 http://www.healthscotland.scot/media/1677/mup-proposed-portfolio-nov-2017.pptx slide 10

250 Ludbrook, A. (2010) Purchasing patterns for low price off-sales alcohol: evidence from the Expenditure and Food Survey; Edinburgh: SHAAP

251 Ludbrook, A. at al. (2012) Tackling Alcohol Misuse: Purchasing Patterns Affected by Minimum Pricing for Alcohol, Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Volume 10, Number 1

252 Andrew Leicester, Senior Research Consultant, Institute for Fiscal Studies in oral evidence to the Health and Sport Committee, 24 January 2012 http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/28862.aspx?r=6852&mode=pdf

253 Sousa J. (2014) Estimation of price elasticities of demand for alcohol in the United Kingdom HMRC Working paper 16, London: HMRC

254 Ibid, Table 2A

255 Ibid, page 7

256 Tables 2.1 and 2.2 Purshouse, R. Meng Y, Rafia R, Brennan A. (2009) ‘Model-based appraisal of alcohol minimum pricing and off-licensed trade discount bans in Scotland: A Scottish adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2’ , ScHARR, University of Sheffield

257 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) tables 4.7 and 4.9

258 Nielsen CGA Dataset: Alcohol Sales http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

259 Nielsen price Band Dataset op.cit . RTD = ready to drink, premixed products

260 MESAS monitoring report Sales http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

261 Ellis, C (2009). Do supermarket prices change from week to week?, Bank of England Working Paper No. 378

262 https://www.gov.uk/national-minimum-wage-rates accessed 10 November 2017

263 Scottish Government (2017) Statistical Bulletin Crime and Justice Series: Scottish Liquor Licensing Statistics 2016-17 Edinburgh: Scottish Government
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/PubLiquor/LiquLic201617

264 Cnossen S (2007) Alcohol taxation and regulation in the European Union. International Tax and Public Finance. 14(6) 699-732

265 Johansson P, Pekkarinen T, Verho J, (2014) Cross border health and productivity effects of alcohol policies . Journal of health economics. 36 125-136

266 Beatty, T., Larsen, E., and Sommervoll D. (2009) Driven to Drink. Sin taxes near a border, Journal of Health Economics, 28, 1175 - 1184

267 Asplund M, Friberg R, and Wilander F. (2005). Demand and Distance: Evidence on Cross-Border Shopping. CEPR discussion paper. Agarwal S, et al (2013) Cross-Border Shopping:

Do Consumers Respond to Taxes or Prices?

268 From General Register Office for Scotland, Mid 2016 Population Estimates Scotland, Table 2. https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables

269 UK and overseas petrol and diesel prices - October 2017

http://www.theaa.com/driving-advice/driving-costs/fuel-prices

270 AA Running Costs tables: http://www.theaa.com/resources/Documents/pdf/motoring-advice/running-costs/petrol2014.pdf

271 Office of the Revenue Commissioners and the Central Statistics Office (2009) The Implications of Cross Border Shopping for the Irish Exchequer

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/labourmarket/2009/qnhs_xborder0209.pdf

272 Inter Trade Ireland http://www.intertradeireland.com/researchandpublications/trade-statistics/cross-border-shopping/

273 “Border towns boom time as southern shoppers flock to Northern Ireland” http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/border-towns-boom-time-as-southern-shoppers-flock-to-northern-ireland-35192961.html

274 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/minimum-unit-pricing-evaluation-portfolio

275 Miller Samuel Hill Brown Solicitors Blog. Alcohol to orderhttps://www.mshblegal.com/Licensing-Blogs/Licensing/alcohol-to-order.html

276 ONS. Retail Sales – October 2017

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/october2017#whats-the-story-in-online-sales

277 Arabella Mileham UK leads Europe for online booze sales The Drinks Business 2017 https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2017/04/uk-leads-europe-for-online-booze-sales/

278 Glynn Davis UK’s serious thirst for alcohol online Retail Insider http://www.retailinsider.com/2017/05/uks-serious-thirst-alcohol-online.html

279 Scottish Government discussions with Police Scotland which also covered HMRC and Trading Standards

280 HMRC Measuring tax gaps tables 2017. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps-tables

281 Chief Constable Pat Shearer in oral evidence to Health and Sport Committee on 17 March 2010, col 2982

282 Information taken from http://www.lovebrewing.co.uk/

283 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/excise-notice-39-spirits-production-in-the-uk

284 Giles L, Robinson M. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy: Monitoring Report 2017. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland; 2017.

285 Angus C et al Model–based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland. April 2016. SHARR University of Sheffield

286 This is not a strong white cider

287 “White Cider” is a made by processing cider after the traditional brewing process is complete, resulting in a nearly white product. This allows the production of a strong (typically 7-8% ABV) cider cheaply, quickly, and on an industrial scale.

288 Scottish Grocer March 2017 Off trade - Scotland's most valuable brands 2017

289 http://www.astonmanor.co.uk/about/

290 http://glensvodka.com/original-vodka.php

291 Calculated from HMRC data on alcohol released for UK consumption & Export data for 2016/17

292 Scotch Whisky Industry Review 2009, p.12

293 SWA Annual review 2015/16

http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/news-publications/publications/documents/swa-annual-review-2016-17/#.WiAvYFI5Pcs

294 SWA. Value of Scotch exports grows in first half of 2017 http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/news-publications/news/value-of-scotch-exports-grows-in-first-half-of-2017/#.WiAw5lI5Pcs

295 Nielsen ScanTrack, Scotland, Unit Sales Ranking, 52 weeks Data to 22.04.17

Nielsen ScanTrack, Scotland, Unit Sales Ranking, 52 weeks Data to 22.04.17

296 HMRC Alcohol Duty Rates from 1 October 2011, http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20131006045213/http://www.hmrc.gov.uk///budget2011/taxes-main-announcements.pdf

297 The Telegraph, 26 September 2017 The best low-alcohol beers: craft brewers cut out the booze and boost the flavour . http://www.telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink/beer/best-low-alcohol-beers-craft-brewers-cut-booze-boost-flavour/

298 CGA Strategy is a company that specialises in market measurement, data and research consultancy of food and drinks brands.

299 https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2017/05/05/Low-ABV-craft-beer-signals-category-growth

300 Bell J (2017) Malting barley trade - UK and Scotland. SRUC SAC Consulting Division

301 Written evidence to the Scottish Government’s Health and Sport Committee

302 Anderson, P. and Baumberg, B. (2006) Alcohol in Europe, London: Institute of Alcohol Studies (page 57)

303 A 2017 briefing note from the Institute of Fiscal Studies suggested that, using a different data source, almost 70% of off-trade alcohol units purchased (i.e. those bought in supermarkets and off-licences) in Britain between October 2015 and September 2016 were priced below 50p per unit https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/10252

304 Scottish Grocer March 2017 Off trade - Scotland's most valuable brands 2017 https://issuu.com/peeblesmedia/docs/off_trade_-_scotland_s_most_valuabl

305 As measured by natural volumes

306 As measured by natural volumes. Nielsen ScanTrack, Scotland, Unit Sales Ranking, 52 weeks Data to 22.04.17

307 Wilson J. UK Wine Market Report 2016 USDA Foreign Agricultural Service https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/UK%20Wine%20Market%20Report%202016_London_United%20Kingdom_2-19-2016.pdf

308 Robinson M. The price distribution of wine from different countries of origin sold in Scotland’s off-trade: an update using 2013 data. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland; 2014. http://www.healthscotland.com/uploads/documents/24482-MESAS%20Wine%20Country%20of%20Origin%20Dec%202014_1.pdf

309 Robinson M (2014) op cit

310 WSTA Annual Wine Report 2016 http://www.wsta.co.uk/images/2016WineReport.pdf

311 As measured by natural volumes. Nielsen ScanTrack, Scotland, Unit Sales Ranking, 52 weeks Data to 22.04.17

312 As measured by natural volumes: Nielsen ScanTrack, Scotland, Unit Sales Ranking, 52 weeks Data to 22.04.17

313 http://cideruk.com/uk-cider-market/

314 https://www.beveragedaily.com/Article/2012/07/10/Our-first-ever-UK-cider-can-challenge-mainstream-brands-Carlsberg

315 Nielsen categorise strong/white cider as having ABV ≥ 6.1%

316 MESAS monitoring report 2017: Nielsen price band Data set

317 Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2016-17, Table 1.1 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/08/7201/0

318 http://www.healthscotland.scot/health-topics/alcohol/evaluation-of-minimum-unit-pricing

319 Scottish Government August 2017 Scottish ABI statistics: Scotland by Division 2015 http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/SABS/ScotDiv

320 Scottish Government August 2017. Scottish ABI statistics: the Spirits Sector

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/SABS/SpiritsProfile

321 Scottish Government: (2017) Export Statistics Scotland

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication

322 Bell J (2017) Malting barley trade - UK and Scotland. SRUC SAC Consulting Division

323 Scottish Government August 2017 Scottish ABI statistics: Scotland by Division 2015 http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/SABS/ScotDiv

324 Petrie, D. et al. (2011) Scoping study of the economic impact on the alcohol industry of pricing and non-price policies to regulate the affordability and availability of alcohol in Scotland. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland

325 Scottish liquor licensing statistics on premises and personal licences in force, applications and reviews/proceeding 2015-16.

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/PubLiquor/LiquLic201516

326 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

327 Communication with NHS Health Scotland

328 See: http://www.welcome.scot/features/brewing-up-a-storm & http://glasgowcamra.org.uk/breweries.php

329 http://glasgowcamra.org.uk/breweries.php

330 Scotch Whisky Association (2017) http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/news-publications/news/scotch-whisky-association-and-scottish-craft-distillers-association-launch-partnership/#.WenZblJlLcs

331 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

332 http://www.healthscotland.scot/health-topics/alcohol/monitoring-and-evaluating-scotlands-alcohol-strategy

333 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-final-report

334 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

335 http://www.healthscotland.scot/health-topics/alcohol/evaluation-of-minimum-unit-pricing

336 This list is not exhaustive

337 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/minimum-unit-pricing-evaluation-portfolio

338 CMA (2015) Competition Impact Assessment. Part 1. Overview https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/460784/Competition_impact_assessment_Part_1_-_overview.pdf

339 Office of Fair Trading (2009) Government in Markets https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/284451/OFT1113.pdf

340 Ibid

341 WSTA (2016) http://www.wsta.co.uk/images/Spirits/GinTrail/Scotland_GinMap2016.pdf

342 Scotch Whisky Association (2017) http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/news-publications/news/scotch-whisky-association-and-scottish-craft-distillers-association-launch-partnership/#.WenZblJlLcs

343 http://glasgowcamra.org.uk/breweries.php

344 England has a higher proportion of managed and tied tenanted/lease pubs.

CGA 2016 Research on the Pub Sector in Scotland – Phase 1 “Scoping Study”. Business and Energy Scottish Government.

345 Petrie, D. et al. (2011) Scoping study of the economic impact on the alcohol industry of pricing and non-price policies to regulate the affordability and availability of alcohol in Scotland. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland http://www.healthscotland.com/documents/5051.aspx

346 Gross Value Added ( GVA) estimates GDP and is measured in basic prices, which excludes taxes (including VAT and excise duties) but includes subsidies on products

347 Scottish Government 2017

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/SABS/SpiritsProfile

348 Standard Industrial Classification

349 Scottish Government 2017 op cit

350 Head count – not FTE

351 Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Business Inquiry (Compiled by Scottish Government)

352 Ibid

353 Bell J (2017) Malting barley trade - UK and Scotland. SRUC SAC Consulting Division

354 Scottish Government: (2017) Export Statistics Scotland

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication

355 http://www.thewhiskymarketltd.com/the-market/facts-and-figures

356 SWA response to 2009 consultation

357 https://www.forbes.com/sites/felipeschrieberg/2016/09/28/the-4-companies-behind-34-of-all-scotch-whisky-production/#74f6df6a2df5

358 https://www.scotsman.com/business/companies/number-of-scottish-breweries-at-highest-level-in-a-century-1-4331333

359 http://beertoday.co.uk/major-growth-scottish-beer-market-0317/

360 Health Scotland 2017: Nielsen price Band Data set.

http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

361 http://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/14962164.Tennent___s_boosted_as_C_C_wins_renewal_of_Stella_deal/

362 Giles L, Robinson, M., (2017) Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland’s Alcohol Strategy: Monitoring Report 2017 Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland

363 Ibid

364 Nielsen- CGA dataset http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

365 Neilsen- CGA dataset http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

366 Giles, Robinson (2017) op cit

367 NHS Health Scotland MESAS Monitoring report 2017; Nielsen price band data set

368 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017

369 http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications/mesas-monitoring-report-2017 Nielsen Price Band Dataset

370 Cnossen S (2007) Alcohol taxation and regulation in the European Union. International Tax and Public Finance. 14(6) 699-732

371 Beatty, T., Larsen, E., and Sommervoll D. (2009) Driven to Drink. Sin taxes near a border, Journal of Health Economics, 28, 1175 - 1184

372 Asplund M, Friberg R, and Wilander F. (2005). Demand and Distance: Evidence on Cross-Border Shopping. CEPR discussion paper. Agarwal S, et al (2013) Cross-Border Shopping:

Do Consumers Respond to Taxes or Prices?

373 Office of the Revenue Commissioners and the Central Statistics Office (2009) The Implications of Cross Border Shopping for the Irish Exchequer

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/labourmarket/2009/qnhs_xborder0209.pdf

374 Inter Trade Ireland http://www.intertradeireland.com/researchandpublications/trade-statistics/cross-border-shopping/

375 “Border towns boom time as southern shoppers flock to Northern Ireland” http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/border-towns-boom-time-as-southern-shoppers-flock-to-northern-ireland-35192961.html

376 Anderson K (2017) How Alcohol Brands Can Tap the eCommerce Opportunity. Profitero

377 Miller Samuel Hill Brown Solicitors Blog. Alcohol to order https://www.mshblegal.com/Licensing-Blogs/Licensing/alcohol-to-order.html

378 Amazon might have the option of despatching from a distribution centre outwith Scotland

379 CMA (2015) op cit

380 Note that for some products this is NOT possible – e.g. Scotch whisky must be 40% ABV or higher

381 Scotland's top brands by sales value (2017) The Grocer in

https://issuu.com/peeblesmedia/docs/off_trade_-_scotland_s_most_valuabl

382 Annex B

383 Robinson M. (2014) MESAS Wine Country of Origin Dec 2014 NHS Health Scotland

384 Scottish Grocers’ Federation ( SGF) response to 2009 consultation

385 www.mysupermarket.co.uk, accessed February 2018

386 Prices sources via price comparison site http://www.mysupermarket.co.uk/

387 Professor T. Stockwell Alcohol pricing for public health: alcohol general principles, the devil and the detail. Presentation to Scottish Health Action on Alcohol Problems, Edinburgh, 28 September 2012

388 Angus et al (2016). Model-based appraisal of the comparative impact of Minimum Unit Pricing and taxation policies in Scotland. ScHARR . University of Sheffield.

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1.565373!/file/Scotland_report_2016.pdf

389 Scottish Grocers’ Federation input to draft Regulatory Impact Assessment; SGF response to 2011 consultation

390 Biscourp, Boutin and Vergé (2008) “ The Effects of Retail Regulations on Prices; Evidence from the Loi Galland”, INSEE Working paper 2008/2

391 Collins, Burt, and Oustapassidis (2001), " Below-cost Legislation and Retail Conduct: Evidence from the Republic of Ireland", British Food Journal

392 Irish Competition Authority (2005), ‘Submission to the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment on the Groceries Order, Submission: S/05/006’, July 2005 http://www.tca.ie/PromotingCompetition/Submissions.aspx?selected_item=9

393 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006) OECD Policy Roundtables: Resale Below Cost, 2005 http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/13/30/36162664.pdf

394 http://www.astonmanor.co.uk/

395 http://www.lochlomonddistillery.com/

396 Scottish Parliament reference FI/S3/10/7/2

397 Glen Catrine Bonded Warehouse Ltd. (established 1974), is now the largest independent bottling plant in Scotland, but was originally created to bottle whisky for their own chain of retail shops. Its current annual production is in excess of 36.5 million bottles of whisky, vodka, gin, rum and brandy. Amongst a multitude of brands, they produce the 5th highest selling whisky in the UK (High Commissioner Scotch Whisky) and the 2nd highest selling vodka in the UK (Glen’s Vodka). They also bottle Whisky, Rum, Brandy, Gin & Vodka for many of the leading own/ private labels available in a variety of multiple retail outlets.

398 Definition of Scotch Whisky, 3.1.i http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2009/uksi_20092890_en_1#l1g3

399 SWA response to 2009 consultation

400 This WILL be monitored and analysed in one of the studies within the evaluation portfolio

401 Fogarty, J. (2008) The demand for beer, wine and spirits: Insights from a meta analysis approach, American Association of Wine Economists, Working paper No.31, November 2008

402 Angus et al (2016) op cit

403 Huang, C. D. (2003) Econometric models of alcohol demand in the United Kingdom, Government Economic Service Working paper 140, London: HM Customs & Excise

404 Fogarty, J. (2004) The own price elasticity of alcohol: a meta analysis, Programme Working Papers, University of Western Australia

405 Gallet, C. A. (2007) The Demand for Alcohol: A Meta-analysis of Elasticities, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 51, 2, 121-135

406 Wagenaar, A.C., Salois, M.J., and Komro K.A (2009) Effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on consumption: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies, Addiction: 2009, 104

407 Collis, A., Grayson, A., and Johal, S. (2010) Econometric Analysis of Alcohol Consumption in the UK: HMRC Working paper 10, London: HMRC

408 Sosa. J (2014) Estimation of price elasticities of demand for alcohol in the United Kingdom. HMRC working paper 16. London: HMRC

409 Values are in Angus et al (2016), table 3.2 page 21

410 Angus C, Holmes J et al (2016) table 4.9


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