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Publication - Report

The Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual Target Report for 2014

Published: 31 Oct 2016
Part of:
Environment and climate change
ISBN:
9781786525260

A report required under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 providing detail on the annual climate change emissions reduction targets.

29 page PDF

609.7kB

29 page PDF

609.7kB

Contents
The Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual Target Report for 2014
Part 2 - Net Scottish emissions

29 page PDF

609.7kB

Part 2 - Net Scottish emissions

Requirements of the Act

Section 34 of the Act requires that, in respect of each greenhouse gas, the report must:

  • state the amount of net Scottish emissions for the baseline year (subsection (1)(a)).
  • state the amount of net Scottish emissions for the target year (subsection (1)(b)).
  • state whether the amount of net Scottish emissions represents an increase or decrease compared to the equivalent amount for the previous target year (subsection (1)(c)).
  • identify the methods used to measure or calculate the amount of net Scottish emissions (including in particular any change to those methods) (subsection (1)(d)).

The report must also set out the aggregate amount for the target year of net Scottish emissions (subsection (2)).

If the method of measuring or calculating net Scottish emissions changes and that change is such as to require adjustment of an amount for an earlier target year, the report must specify the adjustment required and state the adjusted amount (subsection (6)). An adjustment must, in so far as reasonably practicable, be made in accordance with international carbon reporting practice (subsection (7)).

Net Scottish emissions of each greenhouse gas

Table 2 provides data for each of the seven greenhouse gases covered by the Act. This includes details of:

  • The amount of net Scottish emissions for the baseline year, and for 2014 (the target year);
  • Whether any of those amounts represent an increase or decrease compared to the equivalent amount for the previous year; and
  • The aggregate amount for 2014 of net Scottish emissions.

Table 2: Net Scottish emissions for each greenhouse gas ( tCO 2e)

Greenhouse gas

Base year

Net base year emissions

Net Scottish

emissions

2013

Net Scottish

emissions

2014

Change in net Scottish

emissions

2013 - 2014

Carbon dioxide
CO 2

1990

55,132,158

38,540,505

34,404,813

-4,135,692

Methane
CH 4

17,677,260

7,877,608

7,517,849

-359,760

Nitrous oxide
N 2O

4,168,748

3,269,534

3,281,030

+11,496

Hydrofluorocarbons
HFCs

1995

126,891

1,303,986

1,327,211

+23,225

Perfluorocarbons
PFCs

115,777

98,548

142,008

+43,460

Sulphur hexafluoride
SF 6

36,021

31,295

30,940

-355

Nitrogen trifluoride
NF 3

501

254

279

+25

Aggregate net greenhouse gas emissions

77,257,355

51,121,730

46,704,130

-4,417,600

Methods used to measure or calculate the amount of net Scottish emissions

The basket of greenhouse gases consists of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and hydrofluorocarbons ( HFCs), perfluorocarbons ( PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride ( SF 6) and nitrogen trifluoride ( NF 3). Greenhouse gases are weighted by global warming potential ( GWP) and presented in carbon dioxide equivalent units. The GWP for each gas is defined as its warming influence relative to that of carbon dioxide, as specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC).

Greenhouse gas emissions estimates are provided by Ricardo Energy and Environment and Aether under contract to the UK Government Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government and the Northern Ireland Department of Environment. Reports are published on the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory ( NAEI) website and the latest figures for Scotland are published in the Official Statistics publication Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2014, which is based on data published at the same time in Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990-2014.

The greenhouse gas inventory covers anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas emissions from a wide variety of emissions sources, which require different approaches to their estimation. There are a large number of data sources used in its compilation, obtained from Government statistics, regulatory agencies, trade associations, individual companies, surveys and censuses. The methods used to compile the greenhouse gas inventory are consistent with international guidance on national inventory reporting from the IPCC.

Most emission estimates are compiled by combining activity data (such as fuel use) with a suitable emission factor (such as amount of CO 2 emitted per unit of fuel used). Estimates of emissions from the industrial sector are often compiled based on plant-specific emissions data. Emissions from some sectors are based on more complicated models - such as the model used to estimate emissions from landfill, and the model used to estimate the carbon dynamics in soils when trees are planted. Much of the data on net emissions from agriculture and related land use, land use change and forestry emissions are based on modelled data for Scotland, which are consistent with, but not constrained to, the UK totals and thus are known as "bottom up" estimates.

Many of the remaining emissions sources within the inventory have been collated on a "top down" approach where estimates of emissions have been apportioned to Scotland using proportions of energy use in the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy publication "Digest of UK Energy Statistics ( DUKES)". This approach is prompted by data availability on emissions being more limited at the sub- UK level.

Changes to methods used to measure or calculate the amount of net Scottish emissions

Scottish greenhouse gas emissions are reviewed every year, and the whole historical data series is revised to incorporate methodological improvements and new data. As a result, both net Scottish emissions and the net Scottish emissions account for each target year are revised every year. The latest published Scottish greenhouse gas inventory (1990-2014) represents the best available data and supersede any previous data, which should be disregarded.

The Scottish greenhouse gas inventory is a subset of the UK inventory, which is assembled using international guidelines that require countries to keep it under review and take account of amongst other things:

  • New data and revisions to data;
  • International developments in inventory methods;
  • The need for the inventory to take account of policy needs as they evolve;
  • Results of research.

All of the revisions to the 1990-2014 Scottish and UK inventories were for one of the reasons above.

Revisions for the 1990-2014 inventory

Due to methodological improvements and new data, as described above, the baseline has been revised upwards in every successive inventory between 1990-2008 to 1990-2013, with a downwards revision to the baseline between the 1990-2013 and 1990-2014 inventories.

Despite the downwards revision between the 1990-2013 and 1990-2014 inventories, there has been an overall upward revision to the baseline to 77.3 MtCO 2e, which is 7.1 MtCO 2e higher than estimated at the time annual targets for 2010 to 2027 were set based on the 1990-2008 Inventory.

Detailed information on revisions are published in the Official Statistics release Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2014 (Section D). The most notable revisions are:

Forestry

  • Correction to model used to estimate net emissions from forestry and harvested wood products.

Agriculture and Related Land Use

  • Correction to emissions of drainage of grasslands on organic soils.
  • Impacts of research to derive more representative, UK-specific emission factors to nitrous oxide emissions in the Agriculture and Related Land Use sector.

Adjustment of an amount for earlier target years

Revisions to previously reported estimates of net Scottish emissions for earlier target years are detailed in Table 3.

Table 3: Revisions to net Scottish emissions for earlier target years

Target year

Net Scottish emission estimate previously reported
( tCO 2e)

Revision required
( tCO 2e)

Revised amount
( tCO 2e)

FOR THE 1990-2011 INVENTORY

2010

55,731,486

+ 1,178,969

56,910,455

REASONS FOR REVISIONS. These are detailed in the Annual Target Report for 2011 and in the statistics paper Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2012 - Key Revisions since 2008

FOR THE 1990-2012 INVENTORY

2010

56,910,455

+ 1,407,176

58,317,632

2011

51,285,207

+ 1,202,036

52,487,243

REASONS FOR REVISIONS. These are detailed in the Annual Target Report for 2012 and in the statistics paper Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2012 - Key Revisions since 2008

FOR THE 1990-2013 INVENTORY

2010

58,317,632

+ 3,193,550

61,511,182

2011

52,487,243

+ 2,355,503

54,842,745

2012

52,895,245

+ 2,044,311

54,939,556

REASONS FOR REVISIONS. These are described in the Annual Target Report for 2013 and in the Official Statistics publication Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2013

FOR THE 1990-2014 INVENTORY

2010

61,511,182

-2,513,579

58,997,604

2011

54,842,745

-2,589,800

52,252,945

2012

54,939,556

-2,228,882

52,710,674

2013

52,961,210

-1,839,480

51,121,730

REASONS FOR REVISIONS. These are described above and in more detail in the Official Statistics Release Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2014

Chart 1 shows the impact of successive revisions of the inventory on the reported source emissions for the baseline and the years from 2010 to 2013, as well as the source emissions for 2014.

Chart 1. Impact of successive revisions of the inventory on the reported source emissions for the baseline and the years from 2010 to 2013, and source emissions for 2014. Values in MtCO 2e

Chart 1. Impact of successive revisions of the inventory on the reported source emissions for the baseline and the years from 2010 to 2013, and source emissions for 2014. Values in MtCO2e


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