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Publication - Research publication

Tackling child poverty delivery plan: forecasting child poverty in Scotland

Published: 29 Mar 2018

Child poverty projections for Scotland independently produced by Howard Reed at Landman Economics and Graham Start at Virtual Worlds Research.

82 page PDF

778.8 kB

82 page PDF

778.8 kB

Contents
Tackling child poverty delivery plan: forecasting child poverty in Scotland
Appendix 3. Movements into and out of poverty as a result of the planned Scottish reforms

82 page PDF

778.8 kB

Appendix 3. Movements into and out of poverty as a result of the planned Scottish reforms

Table A3.1 shows the average number of children in households in the 4-year pooled Scottish FRS sample moving out of relative poverty as a result of the forthcoming Scottish reforms to the tax and social security systems, and the number of children moving into relative poverty as a result of the Scottish reforms. The figures are presented as annual averages for three time periods: (a) 2018/19 to 2021/22, (b) 2022/23 to 2025/26 and (c) 2026/27 to 2030/31. The results show that the number of children moving into poverty or out of poverty as a result of the Scottish income tax reforms is extremely small – only a maximum of 13 children moving out of poverty in period (a) and a maximum of 7 people moving into poverty in period (c). These effects are well below the reporting threshold for statistically significant results based on the FRS data (which should normally be based on at least 30-50 household observations).

Table A3.1.

Forecast period

Number of children moving out of poverty

Number of children moving into poverty

Net balance (increase in poverty)

2018/19 to 2021/22

13

1

-12

2022/23 to 2025/26

8

2

-2

2026/27 to 2030/31

3

7

+4


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