1 'Welfare Reform Act 2012' can be found at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/5/contents/enacted
2 Audit Scotland, ' Welfare Reform Update', Accounts Commission, May 2013.
3 Department for Work and Pensions (
to 2015 Government Policy: Welfare Reform',
08 May 2015 (update).
4 An initial report was produced in 2013, and can be found at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0042/00426405.pdf
5 'Welfare Reform (Further Provision) (Scotland) Act 2012' (section 4: Impact of reform: annual reporting), can be found at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2012/10/enacted .
6 'Welfare Reform (Further Provision) (Scotland) Act 2012 - Annual Report - 2015' can be found at: http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/06/6720/0
7 Note - Measures to introduce size criteria in social sector Housing Benefit eligibility, and make deductions against under-occupancy are most commonly called the 'bedroom tax'. DWP prefers the term 'Removal of the Spare Room Subsidy', and other terms are used elsewhere. For clarity this paper uses the more familiar and popular term.
8 The Smith Commission, ' Report of the Smith Commission for Further Devolution of Powers to the Scottish Parliament', 27 November 2014.
9 Graham, H., Edgell, V., McQuaid, R., and Raeside, R., The Impact of Welfare Reform in Scotland - Tracking Study - Sweep 4 Report, (DRAFT) The Scottish Government.
10 Note - six benefits include: Income-based Jobseeker's Allowance ( JSA), Income-related Employment and Support Allowance ( ESA), Income Support ( IS), Working Tax Credit ( WTC), Child Tax Credit ( CTC) and Housing Benefit ( HB).
11 Note - Under UC Full Service, all new claimants in an area will come under the UC system. In addition, UC claimants main contact with DWP will be through electronic means (through an online UC account, email or text) and there are slightly different rules, for example, on reporting childcare costs and on calculating unearned income.
12 Note - assumes lone parent works on the NMW (£6.70 per hour) in 2015-16 and on the NLW (£7.20 per hour) in 2016-17. Also assumes housing costs of £600 per month and no transitional protection or childcare cost element.
13 Keen, R & Kennedy, S, ' Universal Credit changes from April 2016', House of Commons Library, January 2016.
14 DWP, ' Universal Credit: Estimating the Early Labour Market Impacts', December 2015.
15 Browne, J., Hood, A. & Joyce, R., ' The (changing) Effects of Universal Credit', Institute of Fiscal Studies, February 2016.
16 Note - more information on PIP can be found at: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/personal-independence-payment-policy-briefing-notes
17 PIP figures sourced from DWP's Stat-Xplore.
18 HM Treasury, ' The Summer Budget 2015', July 2015.
19 DWP, ' Personal Independence Payment ( PIP) assessments first independent review: second government response', November 2015.
20 Scottish Government, ' Social Security for Scotland: Benefits being devolved to the Scottish Parliament', February 2016.
21 Office of Budget Responsibility, ' Economic and Fiscal Outlook', March 2016.
22 Some of whom will have already lost the award since reassessments have started.
23 Note - other benefits include Attendance Allowance, Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit and Severe Disability Allowance. The Scottish Government intends to establish an agency to oversee the administration of these benefits, with the exact timescale yet to be formalised.
24 Figures from DWP's Stat-Xplore, (24 May 2016) .
25 Figures from DWP's Stat-Xplore, (24 May 2016) .
26 Scottish Government, ' Updated Evidence On The Number Of Households Affected By The Housing Benefit Under Occupation Penalty', June 2013.
27 DWP, ' Evaluation of Removal of the Spare Room Subsidy, Final Report', December 2015.
29 Scottish Government analysis based on figures from DWP's Stat-Xplore (24 May 2016).
31 DWP, ' Benefit cap: planning estimates of number of households in scope for lower benefit cap levels', February 2016.
32 Note - only ESA claimants who are in the 'work-related activity group' are affected. In addition, at full roll-out, some UC claimants will not be affected such as those who claim the Carer's element.
33 Scottish Government, ' JSA Sanctions in Scotland: An analysis of the sanctions applied to claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance in Scotland', November 2014.
34 Note - this refers to the period of January 2015 to December 2015.
35 Note - Referring to the third quarter of 2013 and 2015, respectively.
36 Scottish Government analysis based on figures from DWP's Stat-Xplore..
37 Scottish Government, ' ESA Sanctions in Scotland - July 2015' , July 2015.
38 Note - entitlement to contribution based ESA is based on the number of years of National Insurance ( NI) contributions made by a claimant. Eligible claimants with insufficient NI contributions will claim Income-based ESA.
39 HM Government, ' Summer Budget 2015: Policy Costings', July 2015.
40 Scottish Government analysis based on figures from DWP's Stat-Xplore (24 May 2016).
42 Note - Caseload in November 2014 and November 2015, based on figures from DWP's Tabtool (24 May 2016).
43 C. Beatty, et al ., 'Monitoring the Impact of Changes to the Local Housing Allowance System of Housing Benefit', May 2013.
45 Note - based on the latest estimate of 2.34 million households in Scotland which can be found at: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-estimates/house-est-15/15house-est.pdf.
46 Chartered Institute of Housing, ' Mind the gap: the growing shortfall between private rents and help with housing costs', May 2016.
47 Note - actions that the Scottish Government could take to reduce the impact of welfare reforms that sit outside its jurisdiction.
48 The Poverty Alliance, ' Making the Connections: A Study of Emergency Food Aid in Scotland', February 2015.
49 The Trussell Trust, ' Foodbank Use Remains at Record High, As New Data Mapping Tool Gives Fresh Insight into UK Hunger', April 2016.
50 Sourced from Trussel Trust statistics, available at: https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/
51 Sourced from Trussel Trust statistics, available at: https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/
52 The Trussell Trust, ' Foodbank Use Remains at Record High, As New Data Mapping Tool Gives Fresh Insight into UK Hunger', April 2016.
54 Scottish Government, ' Discretionary Housing Payments in Scotland: 1 April 2015 to 31 March 2015', May 2016.
55 Note - figures subject to rounding error.
56 Statistics for the Scottish Welfare Fund can be found at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Social-Welfare/swf
57 Note - a list of criteria can be found at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Education/Schools/HLivi/schoolmeals/FreeSchoolMeals
58 'Education (School Lunches) (Scotland) Amendment Regulations 2013' can be found at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2013/64/made
59 Summary Statistics for Schools in Scotland (December 2015) can be found at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/School-Education/Summarystatsforschools
60 The Smith Commission, ' Report of the Smith Commission for Further Devolution of Powers to the Scottish Parliament' , November 2014.
61 Scottish Government, ' Social Security for Scotland: Benefits being devolved to the Scottish Parliament', November 2015.
62 'The Scotland Act 2016' can be found at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2016/11/contents/enacted
63 Scottish Government, ' Scotland's social security principles', December 2015.
64 Scottish Government, ' Creating a Fairer Scotland: A New Future for Social Security in Scotland', March 2016.
65 Scottish Government, ' Options Appraisal Part 1: The strategic case for change and the governance of social security in Scotland', March 2016.
66 Scottish Government, ' Scottish Social Security - Options Appraisal Part 1: The strategic case for change and the governance of social security in Scotland',March 2016.
67 First Minister of Scotland, ' Priorities speech - Taking Scotland Forward', 25 May 2015.
68 The Scottish Government, ' The Agreement Between the Scottish Government and the United Kingdom Government on the Scottish Government's fiscal framework', March 2016.
69 Scottish Government, ' Social Security for Scotland: Benefits being devolved to the Scottish Parliament', February 2016 (update).
70 Note - commitments made by the previous Scottish Government administration, available at: http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/New-benefits-agency-for-Scotland-2335.aspx
71 Note - the basic rate of Carer's Allowance.
72 Note - the JSA rate for claimants over the age of 25.
Email: Philip Duffy