Scotland’s International Goods Trade: Quarter 1 2023

The Netherlands remained the top destination for Scotland’s goods exports, with £7.1 billion of goods exported to the Netherlands in the year ending March 2023. Exports to the Netherlands accounted for 19% of Scotland’s total goods exports in this period and increased by £1.3 billion (22.9%) compared to the previous year. This was predominantly due to increases in exports of oil, which increased by £1.1 billion (up 26.2%) and accounted for just over three quarters (76%) of Scotland’s goods exports to the Netherlands. Over half (53%) of Scotland’s total oil exports were to the Netherlands. It should be noted that the Rotterdam effect may have an impact on the interpretation of these figures; this effect refers to the possibility that trade flows through major ports like Rotterdam may ultimately be on their way to final destinations outside of that country. Therefore the figures for the Netherlands may be inflated.

Over the longer term, the largest increase in export value to any destination was to Ireland in the year ending March 2023 compared to the corresponding period ending March 2020 (up £2.6 billion, 227.8%). However this increase was almost entirely due to an increase in the value of exports of gas to Ireland (up £2.5 billion, 734.7%). This in turn was likely heavily influenced by the price of gas, since the volume of gas exports only increase by 30.3%.

The biggest decrease over this period was in exports to South Korea (down £220 million, 32.2%) which was driven by a decrease in exports of oil (down £302 million, 88.8%). Over the longer term the biggest decrease was in exports to China (down £3.3 billion, 79.7%) which was due to a large decrease in oil exports (down £3.6 billion, 100.0%) between the year ending March 2023 and the year ending March 2020.

However, when oil and gas are excluded, the United States was Scotland’s top destination for goods exports in the year ending March 2023, accounting for 16% of Scotland’s goods exports. The value of goods exports to the United States increased by 22.0% (£692 million) to £3.8 billion in the year ending March 2023 compared to the previous year. This was the largest value increase for any destination over this period and the biggest contributors to this increase were exports of drinks and power generating machinery.

Excluding oil and gas, France was Scotland’s second largest export destination, with the value of exports increasing by 10.0% (£185 million) in the year ending March 2023 compared to the previous year. Of the top ten export destinations, all but Norway (down £0.6 million, 0.1%) experienced increases in export value excluding oil and gas over this period. Compared to the previous year, the value of goods exports to Russia experienced the largest value decrease (down £149 million, 84.0%) in the year ending March 2023, when oil and gas are excluded.

Figure 10. The Netherlands remained Scotland’s top destination for goods exports in the most recent year
Value of goods exports to top ten export destination countries and percentage of total exports in year ending March 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Table 7. The value of Scotland’s goods exports, excluding oil and gas, to the top ten export destination countries, £ billions, year ending (YE) March (Q1) 2020 to year ending March 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023

Figure 11. When oil and gas are excluded, USA was the top export destination for goods exports

Value of goods exports to top ten export destination countries and percentage of total excluding oil and gas, year ending March 2023

Source: HMRC RTS, Q1 2023