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Publication - Report

UK welfare policy: impact on disabled people

Published: 30 Oct 2017

Analysis of the impact of Personal Independence Payments and changes to employment and support allowance.

36 page PDF


36 page PDF


UK welfare policy: impact on disabled people

36 page PDF



1. For more information see - Scottish Government (June 2017) ' Welfare Reform (Further Provision) (Scotland) Act 2012 - Annual Report – 2017'

2. For more information on these policies see the Welfare Reform Act 2012 - Annual Report 2017

3. Unless otherwise stated, all estimates of policy savings are based on analysis by the Office for Budget Responsibility, with the methodology available in the Welfare Reform Act 2012 - Annual Report 2017.

4. There is no time limit on how long you can claim contribution-based ESA if you're in the Support Group

5. People who are aged 16-19 inclusive, or satisfy the age exception rule if aged between 20 and under 25 (which revolves around rules for education or training)

6. Estimate from the DWP impact assessment of this policy measure

7. A similar reduction was introduced to the housing element of Universal Credit

8. The UK government refers to this change as the 'removal of the spare room subsidy'

9. DWP (December 2010) ' Public consultation - Disability Living Allowance reform'.

10. The OBR's estimates include Disability Living Allowance, which will continue for claimants under 16 and those who were over 65 on 8 April 2013, so not all of the upward revision is driven by revisions to the PIP forecast.

11. OBR (March 2016) ' Economic and Fiscal Outlook'.

12. Paul Gray (July 2016) ' The Second Independent Review of the Personal Independence Payment Assessment'.

13. OBR (October 2016) ' Welfare trends report'.

14. 107,500 were re-assessment claims and 203,900 were new claims to PIP.

15. Caseload data for DLA is only available every quarter. DLA caseload data up to May 2017 will be published by DWP on 15 November 2017.

16. 'Daily Living' is the name under PIP, while 'Care' is the name in DLA.

17. Includes data up to the first quarter of 2017/18.

18. Rising 16s are claimants who reach 16 years of age and so cease to be eligible for DLA but may be eligible for PIP. DWP re-assessment outcome data did not capture this group, so an adjustment has been made to account for the likely number of cases missing from these statistics.

19. This may also include people who were invited to a PIP assessment but did not attend and were therefore removed from the DLA caseload without having an assessment.

20. Net of natural off-flow and withdrawn re-assessment cases.

21. This figure differs from the 34,000 disallowed (pre appeal and MR). Around 22% of claims in Scotland are disallowed PIP and a further 1% are withdrawn, so 77% will receive a PIP award initially (slightly higher than GB average of 74%). The 30,000 figure is adjusted for the results of successful MRs and appeals.

22. Under PIP, medical conditions are recorded under a different categorisation system which is not directly comparable to the DLA classification.

23. Another 6 smaller disability categories are recorded covering the other 4% of people re-assessed. These are excluded for presentational reasons.

24. DWP Stat-Xplore data

25. Paul Gray (July 2016) 'The second Independent Review of the Personal Independence Payment Assessment', DWP.

26. Citizens Advice (August 2015) 'PIP failures are risking people's ability to live independently, says Citizens Advice.'

27. House of Commons Library (January 2016) 'The UN Inquiry into the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in the UK', Briefing Paper Number 7367.

28. Disability Benefits Consortium (September 2017) 'Supporting those who need it most? Evaluating Personal Independence Payment'

29. DWP (December 2012) 'Personal Independence Payments: Reassessments and Impacts'.

30. Note – Scottish Government analysis, applied detailed re-assessment outcomes as published in October 2016 to update this estimate.

31. Motability 'Personal Independence Payment and the Motability Scheme'

32. Scottish Government (February 2017) 'Analysis of written Responses to the Consultation on Social Security in Scotland'.

33. 38,800 individuals were recorded in the 'Assessment group' and 6,952 were not known. The assessment group includes new claimants who apply for ESA and are awaiting their Work Capability Assessment

34. Different amounts if claiming ESA as a couple.

35. Based on 8.18% Scottish share of all GB ESA sanctions since January 2013.

36. For more information on these policies see the Welfare Reform Act 2012 - Annual Report 2017

37. Between April 2014 and September 2016, the average number of WCA cases was 6,800. This time period is excluded from the analysis due to the lag in progressing WCA cases, and the uncertainty in determining how many WCA assessments are genuinely awaiting outcome of a WCA, and how many are clerical cases where it has not been possible to data match.

38. The cases are likely to be a mix of those awaiting assessment and clerical cases where it has not been possible to data match claimants who have went through an WCA with the outcome of the assessment.

39. Office for Budget Responsibility (October 2016) ' Welfare Trends Report'

40. This excludes those affected by the bedroom tax through Universal Credit.

41. Scottish Government (June 2013) 'Updated Evidence on the Number of Households Affected by the Housing Benefit Under Occupation Penalty'.