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Publication - Research Publication

Estimated and projected diagnosis rates for dementia in Scotland 2014-2020

Published: 13 Dec 2016
Part of:
Health and social care
ISBN:
9781786526830

A first report into estimated and projected dementia diagnosis rates in Scotland from 2014 to 2020, based on data from health boards in Scotland.

21 page PDF

467.5kB

21 page PDF

467.5kB

Contents
Estimated and projected diagnosis rates for dementia in Scotland 2014-2020
2. Results

21 page PDF

467.5kB

2. Results

The resulting estimations and projections were as follows:-

Table 1. Estimated and Projected Number of Individuals to be Diagnosed with Dementia in Scotland - 2014 to 2020.

Year Total 95% Confidence Intervals (Byar's Method) Under 60 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 -79 80-84 85-89 90+
2014 16,712 16,078; 17,382 268 343 878 1,742 3,198 4,336 3,699 2,246
2015 17,097 16,036; 18,220 268 344 899 1,766 3,228 4,430 3,812 2,349
2016 17,496 16,411; 18,644 268 348 911 1,818 3,223 4,516 3,945 2,466
2017 17,994 16,879; 19,172 268 356 875 1,972 3,254 4,590 4,106 2,572
2018 18,489 17,345; 19,697 268 364 861 2,058 3,322 4,708 4,232 2,675
2019 18,989 17,817; 20,229 268 372 857 2,117 3,403 4,807 4,356 2,809
2020 19,473 18,271; 20,743 267 381 861 2,170 3,460 4,876 4,503 2,954

Note: Due to rounding within the age groups, the sum of the age groups may not equal the Scotland total for the year.

Source: SMR01, SMR04, SMR50, NHS Ayrshire& Arran, NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde, NHS Lanarkshire.

In 2014 there were an estimated 16,712 individuals newly diagnosed with dementia in Scotland. By 2020, this number is estimated to increase by 17% to 19,473. The age group with the most estimated diagnosis of dementia appears to be 80-84 year olds.

The rates used assume that rate of diagnosis will stay the same for each age band, and therefore, any increases evidenced in the table are due to population growth.

A more visual representation of the depicted increase of diagnoses can be seen via the chart overleaf.

CHART 1. Estimated and Projected Number of Individuals Diagnosed with Dementia; Calendar Years 2014-2020.

CHART 1. Estimated and Projected Number of Individuals Diagnosed with Dementia; Calendar Years 2014-2020

For more detail on NHS Board-specific projections between 2014 and 2020, please refer to Appendix 1 at the end of the report.


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