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Publication - Statistics

Justice Analytical Services (JAS) Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report December 2023 edition

Published
21 December 2023
From
Cabinet Secretary for Justice and Home Affairs, +4 more … Chief Statistician, Director of Justice, Lord Advocate, Minister for Victims and Community Safety
Directorate
Safer Communities Directorate, +2 more … Children and Families Directorate, Justice Directorate
Part of
Communities and third sector, Law and order, Public safety and emergencies
ISBN
9781835218273

This report contains summary statistics covering a number of important justice and safer communities statistics. It is published with up to date statistics every month.

This document is part of a collection

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Topic Page

Scottish Government prison population modelling

A full report on the projected prison population up to the end of March 2024 was published on 14th November 2023. It included the second projections to be published since the COVID-19 pandemic began, and the main aim was to help with planning and policy development.

Forward projections from October 2023 to March 2024 were produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling which simulates prison arrivals and departures to help estimate the number of individuals in prison on a particular date in the future. This modelling performs well, when using accurate assumptions, but there is nevertheless uncertainty in the projections which increases with time. These projections provide a range of possible scenarios in which the population varies from roughly flat over the coming months to potentially increasing to over 8,600 in March 2024.

The above projections to March 2024 indicate that:

  • The overall prison population in Scotland is most likely to either remain stable or rise slightly between October 2023 and March 2024, with a projected range of between 7,500 and 8,650 for the average daily prison population in March 2024. On 1st October 2023, the prison population was around 7,950.
  • It is most likely that the remand population will remain stable but it may increase or decrease between October 2023 and March 2024. If it decreases because of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this may contribute to an increased sentenced population as more individuals transition from remand.
  • It is most likely that the sentenced population will either remain stable or rise slightly; it may rise if the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community into the sentenced population.

Future prison population estimates

The chart below shows the latest prison population projections for October 2023 to March 2024. It includes 50%, 75% and 95% confidence intervals for all scenario variants. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.

A line chart showing prison population projections for October 2023 to March 2024. Includes 50%, 75% and 95% confidence intervals for assumed high, central and low court throughput. A description of the trends is contained in the text of the topic page.

Contact

Email: Justice_Analysts@gov.scot

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