Greenhouse gas emissions projections: phase 1 and phase 2 modelling results

Footnotes

1. Scottish Government, 'Update to the Climate Change Plan 2018 – 2032: Securing a Green Recovery on a Path to Net Zero' (16 Dec 2020). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/securing-green-recovery-path-net-zero-update-climate-change-plan-20182032/

2. Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019. Available at: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2019/15

3. The LULUCF sector was modelled using a sector specific model that required a large offset to be applied to its output from 2021 onwards to remove an inconsistency between its output and the historical time series data obtained from the 2022 Devolved Administration Inventory. Although theoretically, the output from this work including LULUCF suggests net zero could be achieved by 2050, caution is advised due to the adjustments made to integrate the LULUCF sector into our work. To achieve a higher degree of accuracy and lower uncertainty in the LULUCF sector projections, Scottish Government would need to use the CARBINE model to re-model projections in this sector. This was not possible within the time-frame and resources of this work.

4. Relative to a 1990 baseline.

5. ONS, 'Regional Gross Value Added (GVA)' (2021). Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossvalueaddedgva

6. National Records of Scotland, 'Population Estimates' (2021). Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates

7. Scottish Government, 'Agriculture Facts and Figures' (2019). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2019/06/agriculture-facts-figures-2019/documents/agriculture-facts-figures-2019/agriculture-facts-figures-2019/govscot%3Adocument/agriculture-facts-figures-2019.pdf

8. NAEI, 'Devolved Administration GHG Inventory 1990-2020' (2022). Available at: https://naei.beis.gov.uk/reports/reports?section_

9. Sellars A, Beaton C, Bell J (undated). Estimate emissions reduction potential of items funded in the 2020/21 Sustainable Agriculture Capital Grants Scheme. Report by SAC Consulting, provided to this project by Scottish Government.

10. Amendments on storage and use of slurry and digestate made to the Water Environment (Controlled Activities) (Scotland) Regulations 2011

11. The following descriptions have been used:

Key policies are those that are expected to have the largest direct, tangible impacts on emissions, relative to others within each package.

Supporting measures are those that will not have a direct, quantifiable impact on emissions, but may create an enabling environment or facilitate development of further policies/actions that will have a direct impact.

Overlapping/reinforcing measures are those that interact with (and often contribute to the same activity impacts as) other policies - modelling these policies separately without consideration of interactions with other policies would incur double counting of emissions reductions.

12. Wiltshire et al., 'Reaching Net Zero in Scotland Emissions reductions in agriculture' (2021). Available from: https://www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-10/Ricardo%20GHG%20mitigation%20WWF%20Scotland%2017Oct21.pdf

13. Scottish Government, 'Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2020' (published 2022). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-greenhouse-gas-statistics-2020/

14. Scottish Government, 'Update to the Climate Change Plan 2018 – 2032: Securing a Green Recovery on a Path to Net Zero' (16 Dec 2020). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/securing-green-recovery-path-net-zero-update-climate-change-plan-20182032/

15. NRS, 'Household Projections for Scotland, 2018-based' (2020). Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2018-based-household-projections

16. Scottish Government, 'Heat in Buildings Strategy – achieving net zero emissions in Scotland's buildings' (2021). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/heat-buildings-strategy-achieving-net-zero-emissions-scotlands-buildings/

17. The Scottish Government previously "set a target for 11% of non-electrical heat demand in Scotland to be met from renewable sources, such as biomass or heat pumps, by 2020." According to the EST, as of 2020 around 6.4% of non-electrical heat demand was met from renewable sources. Further progress against this specific target was not modelled since it was not included in the CCPu or HiBS. For more information, see EST, 'Renewable Heat in Scotland' (2021). Available at: https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/report/renewable-heat-in-scotland-2020/

18. The following descriptions have been used:

Key policies are those that are expected to have the largest direct, tangible impacts on emissions, relative to others within each package.

Supporting measures are those that will not have a direct, quantifiable impact on emissions, but may create an enabling environment or facilitate development of further policies/actions that will have a direct impact.

Overlapping/reinforcing measures are those that interact with (and often contribute to the same activity impacts as) other policies - modelling these policies separately without consideration of interactions with other policies would incur double counting of emissions reductions.

19. Scottish Government, 'Hydrogen Action Plan' (2022). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/hydrogen-action-plan/

20. Because the results from most scenarios are the same, not all of them appear on the graph.

21. While it is assumed that the electricity grid will largely decarbonise over time, the rate and scale of decarbonisation is uncertain. Future trajectories for grid decarbonisation are provided in Figure 3.4.b in the CCC report, 'The Sixth Carbon Budget: The UK's path to Net Zero' (2020). Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sixth-carbon-budget

22. Demand reduction measures are crucially important for a variety of reasons, but without deep energy retrofits of the entire building stock will still show less of an impact on GHG emissions than the switch to ZDEH. For more information on the importance of demand reduction, refer to CREDS, 'The role of energy demand reduction in achieving net-zero in the UK' (2021). Available at: CREDS-Role-of-energy-demand-report-2021.pdf">https://www.creds.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/CREDS-Role-of-energy-demand-report-2021.pdf

23. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes

24. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/renewable-energy-planning-database-monthly-extract

25. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-trends-section-6-renewables

26. Department of Energy Security and Net Zero, 'BEIS Electricity Generation Costs' (2020). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/beis-electricity-generation-costs-2020

27. The following descriptions have been used:

Key policies are those that are expected to have the largest direct, tangible impacts on emissions, relative to others within each package.

Supporting measures are those that will not have a direct, quantifiable impact on emissions, but may create an enabling environment or facilitate development of further policies/actions that will have a direct impact.

Overlapping/reinforcing measures are those that interact with (and often contribute to the same activity impacts as) other policies - modelling these policies separately without consideration of interactions with other policies would incur double counting of emissions reductions.

28. Since the CCPu and Offshore Wind Policy Statement were published, the level of Industry ambition on wind energy has increased significantly. As part of the ScotWind project, the Crown Estate Scotland offered large areas of seabed for leasing, which could potentially deliver more than 27 GW of offshore wind capacity. Therefore, the targets that have been modelled in this study may underestimate future wind energy deployment.

29. Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, 'Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES)' (2019)'. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes-2019

30. Scottish Government, 'Securing a green recovery on a path to net zero: climate change plan 2018–2032 – update' (2020). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/securing-green-recovery-path-net-zero-update-climate-change-plan-20182032/documents/

31. Scottish Government, 'Deep decarbonisation pathways for Scottish industries' (2020). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/deep-decarbonisation-pathways-scottish-industries/

32. NECCUS, 'Scottish Net Zero Roadmap' (2023). Available at: https://snzr.co.uk/

33. UK Government, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government and the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs for Northern Ireland, 'Developing the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS)' (2022). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/_data/file/1067125/developing-the-uk-ets-english.pdf

34. Scottish Government, 'Climate Change Plan: Monitoring Reports – 2021 Compendium' (2021). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/climate-change-plan-monitoring-reports-2021-compendium/pages/5/

35. ClimateXChange, 'Understanding the impacts of emission trading systems and carbon border adjustment mechanisms on Scottish business' (2022). Available at: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/research/projects/understanding-the-impacts-of-emission-trading-systems-and-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanisms-on-scottish-business/

36. UK Government, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government and the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs for Northern Ireland, 'Developing the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS)' (2022). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/developing-the-uk-emissions-trading-scheme-uk-ets

37. UK Government, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government and the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs for Northern Ireland, 'Analytical Annex to Developing the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS)' (2022). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067127/developing-uk-ets-consultation-analytical-annex.pdf

38. Mineral Products Association, 'Options for switching UK cement production sites to near zero CO₂ emission fuel: Technical and financial feasibility – Summary Report' (2019). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/866365/Phase_2_-_MPA_-_Cement_Production_Fuel_Switching.pdf

39. According to a report by Element Energy on behalf of ClimateXChange, "Fuel switching to bioenergy is particularly relevant to industries that generate organic process residues, like the food and drink, paper and pulp, and wood processing sectors." Element Energy, 'Promoting project progression: Creating a pipeline for industrial decarbonisation in Scotland' (2020). Available at: http://www.element-energy.co.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/industrial-decarbonisation-pipeline-report-final-december-2020.pdf

40. Element Energy, 'Promoting project progression: Creating a pipeline for industrial decarbonisation in Scotland' (2020). Available at: http://www.element-energy.co.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/industrial-decarbonisation-pipeline-report-final-december-2020.pdf

41. Rahnama Mobarakeh, M.; Santos Silva, M.; Kienberger, T. Pulp and Paper Industry, 'Decarbonisation

Technology Assessment to Reach CO₂ Neutral Emissions—An Austrian Case Study'. Energies 2021, 14, 1161. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/en14041161

42. Reuters, 'INEOS to switch Grangemouth to hydrogen in $1.4 bln pursuit of net zero' (2021). Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ineos-switch-grangemouth-hydrogen-14-bln-pursuit-net-zero-2021-09-21/

43. ONS Data on Regional GVA Chain Index (2017=100), Deflated

44. The following descriptions have been used:

Key policies are those that are expected to have the largest direct, tangible impacts on emissions, relative to others within each package.

Supporting measures are those that will not have a direct, quantifiable impact on emissions, but may create an enabling environment or facilitate development of further policies/actions that will have a direct impact.

Overlapping/reinforcing measures are those that interact with (and often contribute to the same activity impacts as) other policies - modelling these policies separately without consideration of interactions with other policies would incur double counting of emissions reductions.

45. Scottish Government, 'Deep decarbonisation pathways for Scottish industries' (2020). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/deep-decarbonisation-pathways-scottish-industries/

46. Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland: 1990-2019

47. Transport Scotland, 'A route map to achieve a 20 per cent reduction in car kilometres by 2030' (2022). Available at: https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/a-route-map-to-achieve-a-20-per-cent-reduction-in-car-kilometres-by-2030/

48. The following descriptions have been used:

Key policies are those that are expected to have the largest direct, tangible impacts on emissions, relative to others within each package.

Supporting measures are those that will not have a direct, quantifiable impact on emissions, but may create an enabling environment or facilitate development of further policies/actions that will have a direct impact.

Overlapping/reinforcing measures are those that interact with (and often contribute to the same activity impacts as) other policies - modelling these policies separately without consideration of interactions with other policies would incur double counting of emissions reductions.

49. European Environment Agency, 'Correlation in growth of passenger transport vs GDP growth' (2012). Available at: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/correlation-in-growth-of-passenger-transport-vs-gdp-growth

50. Average energy consumption per vehicle changes with transport activity levels within each period. This non-linearity introduces small differences in the estimation of cumulative energy and emission reductions under different modelling time steps.

51. Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland: 1990-2019

52. Scottish Government, 'Update to the Climate Change Plan 2018 – 2032: Securing a Green Recovery on a Path to Net Zero' (16 Dec 2020). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/securing-green-recovery-path-net-zero-update-climate-change-plan-20182032/pages/1/

53. The following descriptions have been used:

Key policies are those that are expected to have the largest direct, tangible impacts on emissions, relative to others within each package.

Supporting measures are those that will not have a direct, quantifiable impact on emissions, but may create an enabling environment or facilitate development of further policies/actions that will have a direct impact.

Overlapping/reinforcing measures are those that interact with (and often contribute to the same activity impacts as) other policies - modelling these policies separately without consideration of interactions with other policies would incur double counting of emissions reductions.

54. In this study, all emissions from electricity are allocated to the Electricity sector. Emissions from electricity in the sectors that use electricity, including the NETs sector, are zero.

55. Link to an article on the Ineos website https://www.ineos.com/news/shared-news/ineos-grangemouth-moves-forward-on-the-next-phase-of-its-journey-to-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions-to-net-zero-by-2045-with-further-investment-in-excess-of-1-billion/

56. Link to a letter on the Scottish Government website https://www.gov.scot/publications/carbon-capture-letter-to-uk-government/

57. Wood on behalf of the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 'Assessing the Cost Reduction Potential and Competitiveness of Novel (Next Generation) UK Carbon Capture Technology, Benchmarking State-of-the-art and Next Generation Technologies' (2018). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/864688/BEIS_Final_Benchmarks_Report_Rev_4A.pdf

58. Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 'Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors' (2022). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2022

59. National Academies Press, 'Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda' (2019). Available at: https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25259/negative-emissions-technologies-and-reliable-sequestration-a-research-agenda

60. The following descriptions have been used:

Key policies are those that are expected to have the largest direct, tangible impacts on emissions, relative to others within each package.

Supporting measures are those that will not have a direct, quantifiable impact on emissions, but may create an enabling environment or facilitate development of further policies/actions that will have a direct impact.

Overlapping/reinforcing measures are those that interact with (and often contribute to the same activity impacts as) other policies - modelling these policies separately without consideration of interactions with other policies would incur double counting of emissions reductions.

61. The LULUCF sector was modelled using a sector specific model that required a large offset to be applied to its output from 2021 onwards to remove an inconsistency between its output and the historical time series data obtained from the 2022 Devolved Administration Inventory. Although theoretically, the output from this work including LULUCF suggests net zero could be achieved by 2050, caution is advised due to the adjustments made to integrate the LULUCF sector into our work. To achieve a higher degree of accuracy and lower uncertainty in the LULUCF sector projections, Scottish Government would need to use the CARBINE model to re-model projections in this sector. This was not possible within the time-frame and resources of this work.

62. Forest Research, 'Quantifying the sustainable forestry cycle – Summary Report' (2022). Available at: https://cdn.forestresearch.gov.uk/2022/07/QFORC_Summary_Report_rv1e_final.pdf

63. If the total areas are divided by 26 years (2020-2045) for the High and Central Scenarios and 11 years (2020-2030) for the Low scenario the values will match those in the text.

64. The ClimateXChange report on agroforestry in Scotland (Perks et al. 2018) concluded that the impact of agroforestry on carbon sequestration is highly context specific, so information on location, soil type, tree species, density of planting and of stocking would be required for a robust quantification.

65. Set out in the bullet point list below, and, activities that had happened before 2021 that will still produce GHGs post 2021.

66. National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, 'Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland: 1990-2020' (2022). Available at: https://naei.beis.gov.uk/reports/reports?report_id=1080

67. BEIS, 'Household Energy Efficiency Statistics: Headline Release June 2022 – Table 3.3' (2022). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/household-energy-efficiency-statistics-headline-release-june-2022

68. BEIS, 'National Energy Efficiency Data Framework: Impact of Measures Data Tables' (2021). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-energy-efficiency-data-framework-need-impact-of-measures-data-tables-2021

69. According to the Energy Saving Trust, ASHPs typically cost around £7,000-£13,000 at present. By comparison, the cost of replacing a boiler typically ranges from around £1,600-£3,500. For more information, refer to: https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/advice/air-source-heat-pumps/

70. CCC, 'The costs and benefits of tighter standards for new buildings' (2019). Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/The-costs-and-benefits-of-tighter-standards-for-new-buildings-Currie-Brown-and-AECOM.pdf

71. Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 'Sustainable Warmth competition: questions and answers' (2022). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/apply-for-the-sustainable-warmth-competition/sustainable-warmth-competition-questions-and-answers#administrative-costs

72. CIBSE Benchmarking tool. Available at: https://www.cibse.org/knowledge-research/knowledge-resources/knowledge-toolbox/benchmarking-registration

73. Zero Waste Scotland Public Sector Benchmarking Tool. Available at: https://zerowastescotland.org.uk/content/scottish-public-sector-benchmarking-tool

74. This value was selected based on a review of evidence on the average savings in non-domestic buildings. Note that, unlike domestic buildings, both energy use and the potential energy savings from retrofitting vary widely among the non-domestic stock. Sources include:

Carbon Trust, 'Building the Future Today' (2009). Available at: https://www.carbontrust.com/resources/building-the-future-today

BEIS, 'Consultation on the Non-Domestic Private Rented Sector Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards' (2020). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839362/future-trajectory-non-dom-prs-regulations-consultation.pdf

Better Buildings Partnership, 'Real Estate Environmental Benchmarks: 2019 Energy Snapshot – Chart 6' (2020). Available at: https://www.betterbuildingspartnership.co.uk/sites/default/files/media/attachment/BBP_REEB%202019%20Energy%20Snapshot.pdf

Greater London Authority, 'The London Plan 2021' (2021). Available at: https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/planning/london-plan/new-london-plan/london-plan-2021

There are also numerous case study examples of buildings achieving energy savings of 30% or more. See, for example, the Better Buildings Partnership report, 'Helping businesses to improve the way they use energy' (2018), available at https://www.betterbuildingspartnership.co.uk/sites/default/files/media/attachment/Better%20Buildings%20Partnership%20-%20Call%20for%20evidence%20-%20helping%20businesses%20to%20improve%20the%20way%20they%20use%20energy.pdf

75. Energy Saving Trust, 'Non-Domestic Analytics - Version 1.1' (2022). Unpublished.

76. BEIS, 'Domestic energy consumption by energy efficiency and environmental impact' (2015). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/669734/Domestic_Energy_Consumption_by_Energy_Efficiency_and_Environmental_Impact.pdf

77. Scottish Government, 'Scottish Housing Condition Survey - Table 20: EPC Band by Tenure in 2019' (2021). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/collections/scottish-house-condition-survey/

78. Scottish Government, 'Energy efficiency in non-domestic buildings' (n.d.). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/policies/energy-efficiency/energy-efficiency-in-non-domestic-buildings/

79. ClimateXChange, 'An evidence review of data associated with non-domestic buildings' (2022). Available at: https://era.ed.ac.uk/handle/1842/39306

80. See sections 'All-Tenure Zero Emissions Heat Standard' and 'Regulatory Trigger Points and Area-Based Regulation' of Scottish Government, 'Heat in Buildings Strategy' (2021). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/heat-buildings-strategy-achieving-net-zero-emissions-scotlands-buildings/

81. CCC, 'The Sixth Carbon Budget: Buildings sector Summary' (2020). Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Sector-summary-Buildings.pdf

82. BEIS, 'Renewable Heat Incentive Statistics' (2022). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/renewable-heat-incentive-statistics

83. EST, 'Renewable Heat in Scotland' (2020). Available at: https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/report/renewable-heat-in-scotland-2020/

84. BEIS, 'Smart meter rollout cost-benefit analysis' (2019). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831716/smart-meter-roll-out-cost-benefit-analysis-2019.pdf

85. BEIS, 'Smart Meter Statistics: Quarterly Report to end March 2022' (2022). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1077592/Q1_2022_Smart_Meters_Report.pdf

86. BEIS, 'Energy consumption in new domestic buildings 2015 to 2017 in England and Wales' (2019). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-consumption-in-new-domestic-buildings-2015-to-2017-england-and-wales

87. BEIS, 'Energy Consumption in the UK: End uses data tables' (2022). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-consumption-in-the-uk-2021

88. Scottish Energy Statistics Hub, available at: Scottish Energy Statistics Hub (shinyapps.io)

89. Scottish Government, 'Heat Networks Delivery Plan' (2022). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/heat-networks-delivery-plan/

90. Energy Saving Trust 'Evaluation of the District Heating Loan Fund (DHLF)' (n.d.). Available at: https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/programme/district-heating-loan-fund/

91. DECC, 'Assessment of the costs, performance and characteristics of UK heat networks' (2015). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-of-the-costs-performance-and-characteristics-of-uk-heat-networks

92. Scottish Government, 'Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2020' (2022). Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-greenhouse-gas-statistics-2020/

93. Energy Saving Trust 'Evaluation of the District Heating Loan Fund (DHLF)' (n.d.). Available at: https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/programme/district-heating-loan-fund/

94. DECC, 'Assessment of the costs, performance and characteristics of UK heat networks' (2015). Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-of-the-costs-performance-and-characteristics-of-uk-heat-networks